CAD/JPY still to recover

Source: Dukascopy Bank
CAD/JPY put an end to the downtrend by breaking a channel down pattern mid 2016 and extending a steep bullish motion to tackle a pitchfork parallel at 87.73. The last month has calmed the steep upward motion, leading the pair into a slightly consolidative movement. With the Fibonacci retracement and Expansion at 86.41/94 having stolen some of the momentum, the ranging market is a natural expression of bears reminding of themselves and does not bring much doubt to the sustainability of the uptrend, at least for now. The flatness is additionally caused by the 100-week SMA right on the spot.  

Weekly Chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


We expect the pair to target the area A until the middle of the year and then potentially move on to area B, but it is hard to tell yet. The primary area is a cluster of significance, compiled by a Fibonacci Expansion, Pitchfork Parallel, Gann Angle and 200-week SMA and Gann period with the Fibonacci Fan arc and Fibonacci retracement lying near, and potentially providing alternative targets around the area. Due to the success of similar areas in moving the market and other bullish technical indicators, we attribute quite some credibility to the cluster and see it as a reasonable target that would require lesser steepness.  

Daily Chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Shorter-term charts, however, give mixed signals on the scenario. It can be observed on the daily chart that the pair has established a double top around 88.63. This could mean either that a reversal is on the table or that a trading range is being constructed. We will have to eye 86.31, the neck-line and 100% Fibonacci Expansion for signs of either scenario, with a bounce from 86.31 confirming the latter. Even though the pair has exited the Pitchfork and now testing its parallel, a channel up pattern on the hourly chart makes us ultimately lean in favour of a bullish continuation, meaning that the pair could break 88.63 soon without even approaching the neck-line of 86.31.

Hourly Chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


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