Eugen Weinberg, Head of Commodity Research at Commerzbank, on gold and silver

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Eugen Weinberg
Lately, both gold and silver have returned to their pre-Brexit vote levels. In your point of view, will they regain positive momentum going forward or not? Why?

In my opinion, it depends on how you define the positive trend. Prices returned to pre-Brexit levels as the degree of awareness for the risks and the risk aversion returned to the previous marks. Thus, the ongoing "positive" situation, or, I would say, a calming down situation, is actually leading to lower gold and silver prices rather than to higher prices. Nevertheless, we think that the risk aversion and volatility are likely to come back to the markets later this year and early next year; therefore, prices are likely to start rising to average $1,300.00 next year. 

What fundamentals can influence the performance of gold in the near future? 

It depends mostly on the sentiment rather than the demand for jewellery in China or India, or the output of the gold mines. Overall, the sentiment as well as external factors such as the performance of the US Dollar exchange rate, the performance of equities and also the performance of bond markets – are the factors that are likely to impact prices. 

Where do you foresee gold prices for the end of this year?

This year, I anticipate the prices to go above $1,300.00 an ounce, while next year they are even likely to rise to over $1,400.00 during the year.

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