Monthly Chart
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Considering our expectation of an almost immediate reversal, we look at the hourly chart to gain some short-term insights.
Trading right above a green Ichimoku cloud with no red flags in sight, the pair has just forced the Tenkan-sen line to unwillingly cross Kijun-sen with potential for a bearish crossing back if any pressures from the upside prevail. A golden cross formation has encouraged bulls to act upon the trend, potentially misguiding risks from underneath.
Hourly Chart
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Adding ground to a potential downtrend, an evening star on the hourly chart signals the beginning of bearish market themes. Several engulfing patterns and hammers, both bullish and bearish have appeared in the market, jumping between different market signals and failing to give an actual insight.
The Andrews' Pitchfork shows quite a strong uptrend, stemming from the pair's proximity to the median line, occasionally crossing it from the up or below. In case other technical aspects prove dominant and the uptrend is not extended, the current bottom trend-line of the Pitchfork at 1.4608 or higher along the line will be set for tests, and if successful, 1.4558, the pattern trigger line/two-month support level will come into play.
Daily Chart
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The pair is threatening to close the month below the senior channel bottom trend-line at 1.4741, and in case it happens, the break will serve as a strong confirmation of a reversal with further risk at 1.5480, the descending triangle support, 1.4433, the wedge bottom trend-line and the three-year demand zone at 1.4065 with a hitch near 1.4242 on the course. The levels could be tackled in late 2016 and early 2017.
A positive Australian trade balance surprise failed to induce any volatility whatsoever, and casting doubts on whether the momentum is strong enough to express a motion of larger scope at all. With the US unemployment claims coming up at 11:30 AM GMT, it remains uncertain what effect the data will bring to the market.
Aggregate Technical Indicators
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