Monthly Chart
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Broken trend-line still has power
The pair is currently on its way towards the lower trend-line of the wedge, and GBP/AUD (because of different tenses) has established a channel down to serve this purpose. It does, however, seem that the channel will be broken soon, with the first obstacle being 1.7280 in the 4-hour chart, where late August lows lie. More important support rests around 1.6668, corresponding to a broken 15-year downward trend-line, at which the pair is possibly attempting a rebound. As the level lies inside the wedge pattern, it is most likely that this level will provide enough demand to block access to the bottom trend-line, as it did for the most recent low already.
Daily Chart
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Several bullish factors pressure up
While various time-frame SMAs will provide support and downward pressure for the currency pair, the Bollinger Band lower boundary has been violated more than once, implying an oversold Pound and less future sell-offs. The price could thus rally towards the weekly and daily S1s, followed by a break above the upper channel boundary at 1.7355. In this scenario the price will eventually encounter several significant levels, and in case it is successful in pushing through, the upper wedge trend-line and 200-hour SMA cluster at 1.7461/66 will be probed. The ultimate target rests at 1.8031 where the current senior downtrend is likely to cut the gains, at least for now.
Hourly Chart
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Fundamentals play role in latest developments
A continuation of the wedge pattern seems the soundest scenario for now, up until the top boundary of the channel is overstepped and the aforementioned scenario takes effect. However, the bearish movement through the descending channel has been strongly facilitated by an exceptional Australian Trade Balance reading, which might mean that the pair technically has more upside potential than we credit it, and was supposed to break the channel if not for the data release.
Some limited further volatility could be induced by several Pound-related fundamental data releases on Friday, which are not of high importance. Therefore, technical factors could lead the way for GBP/AUD this week.
Aggregate Technical Indicators
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