USD/SGD breaks patterns in favour of general bull market

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
USD/SGD showed signs of weakness over the first eight months of 2016, posting eight percent of losses in June. Respecting the 1.3345 support level, the pair has recovered 2.6 percent since then, and might continue to erase the losses just after a retracement to the broken trend-line around 1.3457 is accomplished. After experiencing severe volatility during Yellen's speech on August 26, when the pair managed to bounce in the scope of more than one percent, it returned into the monthly upward channel, just to break it yesterday. Even though major support is provided by 55, 100 and 200- 4 hour period SMAs, it is likely to enforce a further uptrend after mid-September, when the rate could be back on a bullish track after the retracement. 

Weekly Chart:
© Dukascopy Bank SA
 

Set of corrections before bulls gain

The hourly time-frame has just sent a strong BUY signal with the 100-hour and 200-hour crossover again implying that an uptrend will be dominant overall. Furthermore, a small correction towards the broken channel line can be expected immediately before the triangle rebound takes place.  

The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the September 1 drop has proven to be of significance, providing resistance at first, but now when broken it could serve as support for movements over the next hours. The main resistance, however, lies around the 1.362 Singapore dollar level, where the 55-hour SMA, 100-hour SMA and upper Bollinger Band clusters. In case it is broken, the rate will rally towards the channel line at 1.3636 just to plunge to the 1.3450/60 mark where the broken triangle line lies, encountering the 200-hour SMA at 1.3577 on its way. 

Alternatively, the pair could skip the channel consolidation and target the broken triangle right away.

Hourly Chart:
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Severe fundamental volatility ahead

A set of fundamental data, most of which came out below expectations added to the 0.5% dip the pair experienced on September 1, and more significant numbers are to come today. Volatility induced by average hourly earnings, non-farm employment change, factory orders as well as the unemployment rate and trade balance data is set to shake the consolidated market over today's trading session.

Aggregate Technical Indicators:
© Dukascopy Bank SA


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