Community Forecasts for March 21 - 25: EUR/USD 1W Chart

Source: Dukascopy Bank
© Dukascopy Bank SA
The single European currency has performed a strong rally in the middle of the last week after the Federal Reserve left the Fed funds rate unchanged at 0.5%. Moreover, the FOMC cut the 2016 GDP outlook from 2.4% to 2.2% and the 2017 projection was lowered to 2.1% from 2.2% in December. In addition, the PCE inflation projection for 2016 was also lowered to 1.2% from 1.6% previously and for 2017 it was kept at 1.9%. In addition, the Fed cited global economic developments as a possible risk for the US economy and the FOMC median interest rates forecast now implies only two rate hikes in 2016, down from four implied hikes in December's projections. The greenback was highly influenced after the following release, with the EUR/USD pair hitting fresh daily highs hovering around 1.1180 mark. Moreover, pair extended its gains during the FOMC press conference, jumping above the 1.12 mark. 
At the moment of writing, we could see bulls trying to refresh the recent high. Traders, however, does not believe the pair will continue its appreciation, as only 37.5% of votes are bullish, while consensus forecast stands at 1.12. The overall market sentiment is bearish (62.5%), while traders rokasltu supports this forecast and believes that believes "The EUR/USD took upward direction after FOMC statement but faced resistance above 1.13. In my opinion, as monetary policy is quite clear at the moment, the EUR/USD movements might be limited for a while. I expect rate to go downward a little during this week."
The pair has a potential to be highly volatile in the second part of the week, especially on Thursday, when the ECB will announce Targeted LTRO, while American statistical agencies will unveil the initial jobless claims and durable goods orders. On Friday, in turn, the US will publish GDP for the fourth quarter as well as personal consumption expenditures prices. 

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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