EUR/USD to target 1.04 in anticipation of ECB

On Wednesday EUR/USD created a long lower shadow candlestick, meaning the bears failed to preserve their advantage by day-end. Today, however, the state of affairs is estimated to change, as we have finally approached the ECB day. More than anticipated bearish surprise should push the Euro below both April and March lows at 1.0519/1.0461. By piercing through these levels, the cross will expose the monthly S1 around 1.04, which is guarded by the weekly S3. By looking at these supports, an extra drop towards 2003 low (1.0331) seems less likely.  

The bullish portion of SWFX open positions accounts for 48% on Thursday, up from 45% yesterday. Meanwhile, 100-pip pending orders from the spot price are completely neutral today.