- Stefan Kipar, economist at Bayerische Landesbank
While the European economy has been struggling to solve the refugee crisis, a number of economists expect that inflow of around 800,000 people into Germany will boost the Euro zone's biggest economy. Experts estimate that asylum seekers will contribute to German economic output growth, adding 0.2% of GDP next year and calming Volkswagen's diesel emission scandal, which is expected to lower GDP growth by 0.03% in 2016. The German government predicts the Euro zone's star economy to expand by 1.8% in real terms in 2015 and 2016, with domestic demand being an important driver for growth.
Meanwhile, sales at Italian retailers dropped in September, according to ISTAT. Italian retail sales slid 0.1% in the reported month from August, whereas measured on an annual basis consumer spending at retailers rose 1.5%. The Euro zone's third biggest economy seemed finally finding its way out of the woods, albeit at a slow pace. After years of stagnation, growth is back, with the Italian economy expanding in the first two quarters. The International Monetary Fund in October revised its forecasts for 2015 and 2016 by 0.1 percentage point, to 0.8% and 1.3% respectively.
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