- Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics Inc.
The number of initial jobless claims in the US continued to hover near the lowest level in four decades last week as the labour market improves to reach full employment. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 271,000 for the week ended November 14, according to the Labor Department. Claims remained below the 300,000 threshold for 37 straight weeks, the longest stretch in years. The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better gauge of labour market trends as it irons out weekly volatility, increased to 3,000 to 270,750 last week, remaining close to a 42-year low. Steady demand encouraged employers to hold the line on firings as a tighter labour market makes it difficult to attract skilled workers. Employment has shown enough signs of resilience to allow Fed policy makers to consider raising rates for the first time in almost a decade.
Economists expect payrolls will surge by at least 200,000 this month, which will give the US central bank confidence to raise its short-term interest rate at the December 15-16 meeting. The labour market has remained strong despite faltering global growth. At 5%, the unemployment rate is in territory that many Fed officials see as consistent with full employment and the share of job seekers per open position is the lowest since 2007.
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