© Dukascopy Bank SA
A week ago Community members expected the most traded currency pair to close 250 pips below the real closing price. The main reason for a sharp move to the north was the unpredictable outcome of the Greek bailout referendum on Sunday. Meanwhile, on Tuesday the Euro started to loose its value, after Greece took a step closer to a default and potential exit from the Euro zone. The next day, the single European currency also edged lower, since Greece became the first developed country to default on the International Monetary Fund as its bailout programme expired. Eventually, the pair closed the week on a rather neutral note 1.110.
This week is not reach on economic events, later on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its June meeting. The next day, the US is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims. At the same time, in the middle of the week, on Wednesday, is scheduled the EU Extraordinary Economic Summit.
Dukascopy Community members, however, are more pessimistic about the pair's future, while the consensus forecast stands for 1.091 for this Friday, close to last week's average price of 1.112. According to geula4x, "EUR/USD is under bearish pressure after Greece has voted NO in the referendum on Sunday. This means that now Greece might exit the Euro Zone altogether. This poses a serious fundamental problem to the whole EZ. Resistance lies around 1.1130, which previously supported price between June 23 and 26. Support lies around 1.0900, which supported price at June 1st and 2nd, before a strong bounce higher." In contrast, megajorko believes "According to recent situation, it is probable the EUR/USD to make a new gap down after which the recovery will be strong."
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© Dukascopy Bank SA