US initial jobless claims rise, whereas four-week moving average at 15-year low

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
"It will be important to monitor developments to determine whether the softness in the March labor market report ... foreshadows a more substantial slowing in the labor market than I currently anticipate" 
 -William Dudley, President of the New York Federal Reserve


Following last week's disappointing non-farm payrolls data, the latest report on weekly jobless claims confirmed signs of deterioration in the US labour market. The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in the week ended April 4 rose to 281,000, according to the Labor Department, against economists' expectations for a rise to 285,000. However, claims for the preceding week were revised to show 1,000 fewer application than initially thought. The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better gauge of labour market trends as it strips out week-to-week volatility, dropped 3,000 to 282,250 last week, reaching the lowest level since June 2000. Claims below 300,000 are associated with an improving labour market.

Job growth slowed considerably in March, with the highly awaited non-farm payroll report showing an increase by only 126,000, ending a 12-month streak of employment gains above 200,000. However, with the weakness mostly concentrated in the weather-sensitive leisure and construction sectors, economists expect the slowdown to be short-lived. The unemployment rate  in the world's number one economy remained at 5.5% last month, in line with projections, which is the lowest reading since mid-2008.


© Dukascopy Bank SA

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