German investors feel more upbeat, ECB may start government-bond purchases

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
"Unconventional measures might entail the purchase of a variety of assets, one of which is sovereign bonds"
- Mario Draghi, ECB President


A gauge of German economic confidence rebounded, overshooting market expectations, fuelling hopes of an improvement in Europe's number one economy after it barely escaped recession in the third quarter. The ZEW index, designed to measure investor sentiment for the upcoming six months and reflect the gap between the share of optimists and pessimists, soared to 11.5 in November up from the -3.6 recorded a month earlier, the lowest level since November 2012. It is the first improvement since January this year. The ZEW Current Situation Index, meanwhile, improved slightly to 3.3 after 3.2 a month ago, suggesting that investors in Germany are becoming more and more optimistic about the nation's economy.

The President of the European Central Bank on Monday shared a slightly more upbeat assessment of the Euro bloc's economy, saying that a drop in bank lending appears to have reversed and pointing out that the most economies in the region are growing. Nevertheless, the central bank is willing to take additional easing measures if needed to keep inflation from staying too low for too long.  Mario Draghi explicitly cited government-bond purchases as a policy tool officials could use to stimulate the economy in case the outlook worsens. Meanwhile, the Greek government and Troika are deadlocked over the last round of measures needed to release the final tranche of the country's bailout.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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