Gold jumps on fundamentals

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

Gold broke out to the upside out of the previously drawn triangle pattern. The surge was caused by a drop of the US Dollar.

Namely, the announcement made to the US Congress by the head of the Federal Reserve revealed that rate cuts are upcoming.

Latest Fundamental Event Report

Bureau of Labor Statistics released the US ISM Non-Farm Employment Change data, which came out better-than-expected of 244K compared with the forecast of 162K.

According to the official release: "Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing."

Economic Calendar Analysis



On Thursday, the US CPI and Core CPI data will be published at 12:30 GMT.

On Friday, the US Producers Price Index will be released at 12:30 GMT.

For more information watch this week's Economic Calendar Analysis

XAU/USD short-term forecast

Gold's jump that was caused by Jerome Powell stopped at the 1,425.00 level at midnight between Wednesday and Thursday.

In general, the commodity price was observed being squeezed in between the round levels of 1,420.00 and 1,425.00.

It was expected that the metal will consolidate by trading sideways in this range until additional fundamental clues are released or the hourly simple moving averages approach from the below.

Hourly Chart



On the daily chart, it can be observed that the metal still remains below the August 2013 high level, which stopped the metal's massive June surge.

Daily Chart


Open position volume proportion remains unchanged

Since the middle of Monday's London trading session, 55% of open position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.

The sentiment changed on Thursday, as 60% of open position volume was in short positions. Long traders had taken profit and some have opened short positions in the expectations of a decline.

Meanwhile, in the 1000 base point range around the current metal's price the orders were bearish - 57% of orders were set to buy. Previously, 58% of orders were to sell.

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