26.10.-30.10. Macroeconomic Event Reactions

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
During the week, there are three notable events that have caused currency value adjustments in the past. However, as hinted by historical data, those might not be the US data releases and not the US Advance GDP.

On Tuesday, the US Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders will be released at 12:30 GMT. This event has caused moves on the EUR/USD from 7.6 to 18.3 base points.

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada is set to announce their Overnight Rate at 14:00 GMT. This event has caused USD/CAD moves from 26.3 to 63.9 pips since March.

On Thursday, at 12:30 GMT two events will be released that the financial media will talk about. However, recently both of them have not caused notable moves.

Namely, the US Advance GDP caused a move below ten pips on the EUR/USD in July. In the meantime, the weekly Unemployment Claims have been quite rarely creating a move above ten pips on the mentioned rate. Dukascopy Analytics uses the 10 pips in 10 minutes, as a criteria due to it being the normal volatility of the pair.

On the same day, at 12:45 GMT expect the European Central Bank to announce its Main Refinancing Rate, which has been a zero since March 10 of 2016. Despite that, the economic calendars show it.

What matters is not the rate, but the Monetary Policy Statement of the ECB that is published at the same time. The statement released in a pdf document includes an important number - the ECB Asset Purchase Facility or the sum of how much the ECB is buying up assets.

Namely, how much money the bank is flooding into the markets. If the number is larger than the previous time, the Euro goes down, as the market knows that there will be more of it. If it is the same, normal volatility occurs. On the other hand, the number can be lower. That would cause a surge of the European common currency.

In the meantime, the document could also have hints of future policy changes. Technical traders usually avoid this event.

The reactions on the tables are measured in pips by comparing the difference in the exchange rate five minutes before the event and five minutes after the event.

Tuesday, 12:30 GMT
© Dukascopy Bank SA

© Dukascopy Bank SA

Wednesday, 14:00 GMT
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Thursday, 12:30 GMT
© Dukascopy Bank SA

© Dukascopy Bank SA

Thursday, 12:45 GMT
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Friday, 12:30 GMT
© Dukascopy Bank SA

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