- SWFX traders are neutral
- 66% of pending commands are to buy the metal
- The bullion opened at 1,220.10
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Upcoming Events: EU Economic Forecast; FOMC Member Dudley's Speech; US PPI; US Unemployment Claims; German Preliminary GDP
The bullion has reached crossroads, as the markets are unclear, what is the future direction of the metal. However, there are signs of a surge. On the smaller timeframe charts it can be observed that the previously active descending patterns have been broken and the metal has formed a short term ascending channel. In the meantime, fundamentals still give the largest input into price movements.
The US Import Price Index managed to post a larger-thanexpected gain over the course of April, official data revealed on Wednesday. The US Bureau of Labour Statistics reported that the price index for US imports tacked on 0.5% in April, following the upwardly revised 0.1% uptick registered in the preceding month and beating analysts' expectations for a 0.2% increase. April's surge was mainly driven by higher fuel prices, which rose 1.6% over the month of April, following a 0.9% drop observed in March.
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Upcoming events: US PPI in focus
There are various events about to occur in the aftermath of a rather silent first half of the week. At 10:25 GMT FOMC member Dudley is set to give a speech. Later on, at 12:30 GMT, will be the most important time to watch the fundamentals, as at that time the US PPI and Unemployment Claims will be published. That data release will be covered by the Dukascopy research team online on the Dukascopy webinar platform.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains above resistance
Due to fundamental events in the US the price of the yellow metal remained above the 1,220 mark on Thursday morning. The future course of the commodity price is unclear, as both from a technical and fundamental perspective the yellow metal's price is being squeezed. The metal keeps finding support in the support cluster below it, which has forced the bullion into breaking short term descending channel patterns that were reviewed in the Trade Pattern Ideas section of Dukascopy Bank. Due to that reason it is possible that a surge is about to occur up to the 1,242 mark in the medium term.
Daily chart
The situation on the hourly chart was reviewed and a forecast of a surge was established on Wednesday. The forecast came true, as the previously active channels were broken. As a result a new ascending medium term ascending channel pattern has formed, which can be observed on the hourly chart.Hourly chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Bulls show dominance
Trader open positions remain neutral. However, 66% of trader set up orders are set to buy the bullion.
OANDA Gold traders remain bullish, as open positions are 70.64% long on Thursday, compared to 70.77% previously. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank remain firm, as 69.05% of open positions are long, compared to 68.78% positions on Wednesday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of gold being below 1,350 in August
© Dukascopy Bank SATraders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between April 11 and May 11 expect, on average, to see the metal near 1,350 in early August. Generally, 46% (+1%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,350 in ninety days. Alongside, 36% (-1%) of those surveyed reckon the metal will trade in the range between 1,200 and 1,350 over the next three months.