- 60% of all SWFX open positions are long
- Pending orders optimistic with 68% to buy
- Gold opened Tuesday's session at 1,161.97
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US Import Prices
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped from five-week highs last week, official figures revealed on Thursday. According to the US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims fell to 258,000 in the week ending December 2 after rising to 268,000 in the preceding week. That was in line with analysts' projections. Initial claims remained below the 300,000 level for the 92nd straight week, the longest streak since 1973. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims, which is considered a better measure of labor market trends, advanced 1,000 to 252,500 in the reported period. Many economists believe the US economy is at or near full employment, with the unemployment rate at 4.6%. Thursday's report also showed that the number of so-called continuing claims decreased 79,000 to 2.01 million during the week ended November 26, while their four-week moving average dropped 9,5000 to 2.03 million. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise its key interest rate by 25 basis points at its two-day policy meeting next week. The last time the Fed increased its benchmark overnight rate was in December last year, when the rate was increased from 0.25% to 0.5%. After the release, the US Dollar rose against other major currencies.
The United States' services sector activity hit its one-year high last month, official figures revealed on Monday. The Institute of Supply Management reported its Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index advanced to 57.2 in November from the previous month's 54.8 points. The November figure was the highest since October 2015 and marked the 82nd straight month of growth in the sector, while analysts anticipated the Index to come in at 55.3 in the reported month. Any reading above the 50 point level indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than twothirds of the US economy. Furthermore, the Employment Index climbed to 58.2 from October's 53.1 points, showing that hiring rose at a much faster pace in November. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 61.7 from 57.7 in October, while the New Orders Index dropped to 57.0 from 57.7 and the Prices Index came in at 56.3, losing 0.3 points during November. The majority of respondents expressed a positive view of the economy. Earlier, Markit's final Services PMI for the US came in at 54.6, slightly below the 54.8 point forecast. As a result, the EUR/USD was unchanged at 1.0728, while the GBP/USD fell to 1.2712 from 1.2716 from ahead of the release and the USD/JPY rose from 114.37 to 114.62.
Upcoming fundamental data releases: US Import Prices
Fundamental releases are unlikely to do much for the XAU/USD market as the US import prices at 13:30 GMT are unlikely to shake up markets significantly.
Gold faces channel trend-line
Daily chart: Following unexpected gains on Monday, Gold jumped out of the month-long pattern once again, proving it to become irrelevant for future movements. XAU/USD maintained largely the same distance from the senior downtrend and is now attempting what looks like another attempt at touching it. The broken channel boundary will put up a battle at 1,158.06, but any upside potential is likely to be cut by 1,167.76/1,169.10 – the weekly Pivot Point strengthened by the recent support turned resistance.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart shows Gold hovering around the 55-hour SMA, which is about to merge with the 20-hour SMA and send a bullish signal. The pair will face resistance at 1,165.48 and then 1,166.81 with more risk at 1,167.76. The pair could retrace from the broken trend-line around 1,152.19, and the motion could be facilitated by several time-frame SMAs pressuring from above. It is therefore, most likely that the rate will close the day red.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment stays the same
The optimistic OANDA Gold traders have found the Bullion less attractive on Tuesday, as open positions were 81.91% long, compared to 77.85% on Monday. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank seem to have slightly decreased their bullish stance, as Tuesday showed 67.17 % of traders betting the metal will surge, compared to 68.56% during the previous session.