- SWFX market sentiment is 60% bearish
- Trader pending orders 55% bullish
- Pair opened Monday's session at 1.1255
- Upcoming Events: US JOLTS Job Opening
The expected surge of the Euro against the Greenback began on Monday. However, it did not manage to extend its gains into Tuesday. After failing to break the resistance of the upper Bollinger band the currency exchange rate suddenly retreated down to the combined support of the 100-hour SMA and the lower BB. Although, on a larger scale the surge to the 1.13 mark is still expected.
Business activity in the US non-manufacturing sector fell last month but remained in the expansion territory for the 89th straight month. The Institute for Supply Management reported on Monday that its PMI for the US services sector dropped to 56.9 in May from the prior month's 57.5, whereas analysts anticipated a slighter decrease to 57.1 points during the reported month. The ISM said that 17 non-manufacturing industries reported growth last month.
US Jolts Job Openings
During Tuesday's trading session there is one data release scheduled, which might interest market participants. The reason for the possible interest is the fact that the data package has historically shown enough strength to cause fluctuations in the US Dollar value. The data will be the JOLTS Job Openings number at 14:00 GMT. However, it will not be covered live by the Dukascopy Research team.
EUR/USD remains below 1.13 level
It can be observed on the hourly chart of the EUR/USD currency exchange rate that the pair has found support. It was expected that the rate will reach the 1.13 mark during Monday's trading session. However, that event has been delayed due to the pair changing its direction just above the 1.1280 mark. The fall was concluded when the currency exchange rate encountered the support of the 55-hour SMA and a short term ascending channel pattern's lower trend line near the 1.1240 level. As a result a surge began, which lasted into early Tuesday trading. The target of the 1.13 mark remains in force, as it is expected that the Euro might continue to gain against the Greenback in the next two trading session due to them being quiet in regard to fundamental data releases.
Hourly Chart
The situation on the daily chart has not changed much since yesterday. The only notable fact is that the pair has not been searching for any support on larger timeframes. Thus it can be assumed that the support levels of the hourly chart might have enough strength to push the Euro to the 1.13 mark against the Buck.
Daily Chart
Read More: Technical AnalysisSWFX traders not changing opinion
SWFX traders remain bearish, as 60% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, trader pending commands remain bullish, as 55% of set up orders are to buy the Euro.
OANDA trader sentiment remains bearish, as 68.45% of open positions are short. In addition, SAXO bank clients might be abandoning the bearish outlook, as 63.44% of open positions are short, compared to 66.90% on Monday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.11 at the start of September
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between May 6 and June 6 expect, on average, that the currency pair may trade slightly below 1.11 during the first days of September. In general, 46% (+4%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be above 1.12 in the following ninety days. Meanwhile, 44% of respondents expect to see the rate below 1.10.