- SWFX market sentiment is 60% bearish
- Trader pending orders are 58% bullish
- Pair opened Tuesday's session at 1.1236
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Upcoming Events: US New Home Sales; ECB President Mario Draghi's speech
The EUR/USD currency exchange rate was already above the 1.12 mark, as Angela Merkel made comments publicly in regards to the monetary policy of ECB and pushed the currency exchange rate even higher. On Tuesday morning the currency pair was trading already above the 1.1250 mark. Moreover, most clues indicate that it is likely going to easily reach the 1.13 mark.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last month, official figures revealed on Thursday. The US Department of Labour reported that initial jobless claims fell to 232K in the week ending May 12, following the preceding week's 236K and posting the third consecutive decline. In the meantime, analysts held expectations for an increase to 240K. Claims remained below the 300K level for 115 straight weeks, the longest stretch since 1973.
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Upcoming events: US New Home Sales on Tuesday
During the next 24 hours there is only one minor data release scheduled to occur. The US New Home Sales data is set to be released at 14:00 GMT. However, a large impact on the US Dollar is unlikely. Although, traders should look out for a speech on Wednesday. At 12:45 on that day Mario Draghi is set to speak publicly, and he will most likely address the recent comments, which were made by Angela Merkel in regards to the Euro being too weak.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD near 1.1250 mark on Tuesday
After the fundamental move of the Euro against the US Dollar, which broke the medium term ascending channel pattern, the currency exchange rate continued to trade near the 1.1250 mark on Tuesday morning. The pair is most likely going to reach the 1.13 mark soon, as it faces no resistance up to that level. Meanwhile, from a fundamental perspective markets are grasping the comments of the German Chancellor in regards to the ECB and the weakening of the Euro. However, the bottom line is that Merkel does not like how the ECB has weakened the common currency.
Daily chart
The hourly chart reveals that during the recent trading session the SMAs of the hourly timeframe have been passed not only as levels of resistance, but they have begun to provide significant support to the pair. It is most likely that the 55 and 100-hour SMAs, which on Tuesday morning were located, respectively, at 1.1203 and 1.1169 level, will push the currency exchange rate higher.Hourly chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Market sentiment strongly bearish
SWFX traders remain with an unchanged opinion, as 60% of open positions remain short. Meanwhile, 58% of trader set up orders are to buy the Euro.
OANDA traders remain largely bearish, as 66.80% of trader open positions are short on Tuesday, compared to 70.93% previously. In addition, SAXO bank clients are also bearish, as 65.03% of open positions are short, compared to the 67.27% positions on Monday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.10 in August
© Dukascopy Bank SATraders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between April 23 and today expect, on average, the currency pair to trade just below 1.11 in late August. In general, 57% (+2%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be above 1.10 in ninety days, and 44% (+3%) see it above 1.12.