- SWFX market sentiment is 62% bearish
- Trader pending orders are 54% bearish
- Pair opened Monday's session at 1.1022
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Upcoming Events: US JOLTS Job Openings; US Mortgage Delinquencies; FOMC Member Kaplan's Speech
The Euro opened the day's trading session higher. However during the first hours of the day the gains were lost. The whole reason for the jump was the fact that Emanuel Macron has won the French presidential election. Although, that was an almost priced in event, which caused just a slight surge of the Euro against the Buck. Due to that fact traders are taking profits from their long positions, which has caused a decline of the EUR/USD currency exchange rate.
The US unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly last month, as companies created more jobs than expected. The Department of Labour reported that US firms added 211K jobs to the economy in April, following the preceding month's revised down increase of 79K jobs and surpassing analysts' expectations for a 194K gain. Data also showed that the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, down from March's 4.5%, whereas markets anticipated an acceleration to 4.6%.
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Upcoming events: Minor US data
In the second part of the day some volatility might be induced in the financial markets by medium impact graded US events. At 14:00 GMT the JOLTS Job Openings data will be published. At 20:15 GMT FOMC Member Kaplan is set to give another speech. In addition, starting from today until the 12th of May the US Mortgage Delinquencies data is set to be released. It is a data release without a set time.
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EUR/USD retreats after election jump
On Monday morning the common European currency was in a retreat against the US Dollar, as it touched the support provided by the weekly PP, which is located at the 1.0958 level. It is most likely that the currency exchange rate will continue to surge, as it could be pushed higher by minor support levels. It could reach next the combined resistance of the weekly and monthly R1s at 1.1040. Meanwhile, market participants should be careful with technical analysis, as the yesterday's election was a large fundamental change for the basis of the Euro.
Daily chart
The hourly chart reveals that the consolidation of the positions downwards, which occurred in the aftermath of the high opening, has run into the support provided by the weekly PP at the 1.0958 level. However, that support is not alone. The hourly lower Bollinger band is located exactly at the pivot point. Moreover, the 55-hour SMA is located at the 1.0962 level and the 100-hour SMA was moving higher at the 1.0941 mark.Hourly chart
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Market sentiment strongly bearish
SWFX traders remain bearish, as 62% of open positions are short, and 54% of trader set up orders are to sell.
OANDA traders have decreased their bearish sentiment, as 62.16% of trader open positions are short on Monday, compared to 65.31% previously. Moreover, SAXO bank clients have done the same, as 58.73% of open positions are short, compared to the 64.56% positions on Friday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.10 in August
© Dukascopy Bank SATraders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between April 8 and today expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.10 in early August. In general, 47% (+4%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be above 1.10 in ninety days, and 31% (+4%) see it above 1.12. In the meantime, 4% (-3%) of those surveyed reckon the pair will be at parity or below.