- SWFX market sentiment is 64% bearish
- Trader pending orders are 56% to sell
- Pair opened Monday's session at 1.0834
- Upcoming Events: FOMC Member Evans's Speech, FOMC Member Kaplan's Speech
Orders for US-manufactured long-lasting goods rose more than expected last month, official figures revealed on Friday. The US Department of Commerce reported that orders for durable goods advanced 1.7% in February, following the preceding month's upwardly revised gain of 2.3% and surpassing analysts' expectations for a 1.1% increase. Excluding transportation equipment, orders for US-manufactured durable goods climbed 0.4%, compared to the previous month's reading of 0.0%. In the meantime, market analysts anticipated a bigger gain of 0.5% during the reported period. However, the following rise marked the sixth straight monthly increase in orders for core durable goods.
Analysts suggest that businesses will improve even more if US lawmakers succeed in lowering corporate taxes and reducing regulations. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft dropped 0.1%, following January's revised climb of 0.1% and falling behind expectations for a 0.5% increase. Shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, used in calculating GDP, advanced 1.0% last month. Data also showed that orders for civilian aircraft rose 47.6%, compared to a 83.3% surge in the prior month. Boeing reported it received 43 orders for aircraft in February, up from the previous month's 26.
Watch More: Dukascopy TV
Upcoming events: Fed speeches
On Monday there are two notable fundamental events scheduled to occur. Both of them are speeches by members of the FOMC. First of all at 18:15 GMT FOMC member Evans will speak publicly. Secondly, FOMC member Kaplan will give a speech at 23:30 GMT.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD already trades above 1.0850 mark
Daily Chart: On Monday morning the Euro started the day's trading session against the Greenback much higher that it could be expected, as the rate started the day at 1.0835. Moreover, during the early morning hours the currency pair has jumped above the 1.0860 level, and it is clearly heading for the 1.0880 level. At that level the rate is set to pause, as the 200-day SMA at 1.0881 and the weekly R2 at 1.0886 are providing resistance to the currency exchange rate's surge. However, if those levels are broken, it is highly possible that the rate would jump to the 1.0950 mark in the upcoming trading sessions.Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Hourly chart: The hourly chart shows that there is nothing in the way of the Euro to surge up to the before mentioned resistance level, as all of the hourly SMAs are below the rate. Moreover, the medium term ascending channel's upper trend line crossed the weekly R2 on the hourly chart at 08:00 GMT. That means that from a pattern analysis viewpoint the way is clear.
Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Read More: Technical Analysis
Markets remain bearish
SWFX traders remain bearish, as 64% of open positions are short. In addition, 56% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.
OANDA sentiment remains bearish, as 62.07% of trader open positions are short on Monday, compared to 59.91% positions previously. In addition, SAXO bank clients have increased their bearish sentiment, as 64.49% of open positions are short, compared to 58.91% on Friday.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.07 in June
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between February 27 and March 27 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.07 by the start of July. In general, 54% (+1%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally above 1.06 in ninety days, and 18% (-1%) see it above 1.12. In the meantime, 15% (-2%) of those surveyed reckon the pair will be at parity or below. © Dukascopy Bank SA