EUR/USD reconfirms trend

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX market sentiment is 53% bullish
  • Trader pending orders are 58% to sell
  • Pair opened Tuesday's session at 1.0572
  • Upcoming Events: JOLTS Job Openings
The common European currency once more confirmed the upper trend line of the medium term ascending channel against the US Dollar. The rate is set to decline not only due to fundamental changes forecasted and most likely about to occur on both sides of the Atlantic, but also it is about to occur due to technicals like the aggregate daily technical indicators and the seen trends.

The US economy created less jobs than expected in the last month of 2016, disappointing markets. The US unemployment rate rose in line with analysts' expectations from 4.6% to 4.7%, while the participation rate climbed from 62.6% to 62.7%. The report also showed US nonfarm payrolls advanced 156,000, while markets anticipated a gain of 177,000, following the previous month's increase of 178,000. Official data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed manufacturing employment advanced 17,000 in December, despite small decreases in two previous months. In the meantime, there was also a slight fall in construction jobs and decline of over 15,000 in temporary help-services jobs. Nevertheless, government employment increased 12,000. In the meantime, the BLS said the Average Earnings Index jumped 0.4%, compared to a 0.1% decrease in November, which boosted the annual rate from 2.5% to 2.9%, the strongest gain since June 2009. Despite mixed economic indicators, the data is likely to maintain confidence in the job market and analysts' expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate hikes in 2017.

After the report, the US Dollar strengthened immediately. The EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.0550, while the USD/JPY held steady at 116.50.

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Upcoming fundamental releases: US JOLTS Job Openings

During Tuesday's trading session there is about to be one notable macroeconomic data release, which might impact the markets by causing short term volatility. The US JOLTS Job Openings number will be published at 15:00 GMT.



EUR/USD hits trend line on Tuesday

Daily Chart: During the early hours on Tuesday the common European currency reached the upper trend line of the medium-scale ascending channel pattern at 1.0627 against the US Dollar and bounced off of it. This fact combined with the daily aggregate technical indicator forecast support the hypothesis that the rate will continue to decline throughout the day. However, the fall might be hindered by the monthly PP at 1.0580, which proved its strength, providing resistance on Monday. In addition, a continuation of the decline is expected in the future, as analysts discuss not if but rather when parity will be achieved.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: The hourly chart for the pair reveals some additional information. The monthly PP is strong enough to hinder the rates movements for up to seven hours before the rate reverses or breaks through the level of significance. The only exception seen in the past days has been the fundamental data caused fluctuations on January 5. Due to that it is suggested to traders to watch the rate for such a timeframe, as it will take time for the rate to move below the monthly PP.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Bullish sentiment decreases

SWFX traders have decreased their total amount of long positions from 55% of total number of open positions on Monday to 53% on Tuesday. Meanwhile, 58% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.


OANDA traders have become neutral, as 50.45% of open EUR/USD positions were long on Tuesday. Meanwhile, SAXO bank traders increased their bearish outlook, as 61.62% of open positions were short.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility



Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.05 by April

Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between December 10 and January 10 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.05 in early April. In addition, 27% (-2%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally above 1.08 in ninety days and 6% (-2%) see it above 1.14. Alongside, 41% (+3%) of those surveyed reckon the pair will trade below 1.02 in three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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