- SWFX market sentiment is 55% bullish
- Trader pending orders are 59% to sell
- Pair opened Tuesday's session at 1.0451
- Upcoming Events: US CB Consumer Confidence; US Richmond Manufacturing Index
New orders for US-made capital goods advanced more than expected in November due to strong demand for machinery and primary metals, suggesting some of the oil-related drag on manufacturing was starting to fade. According to the Commerce Department non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a went up 0.9% after an unrevised 0.2% gain in October. Moreover, there were increases in orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components, as well as computers and electronic products. A drop in oil prices last year, together with a surge in the dollar, pressured manufacturing. Much of the impact has been through weak business spending on equipment, which has contracted for four consecutive quarters. However, with oil prices hovering above $50 per barrel, manufacturing, which accounts for 12% of the US economy, is starting to perk up. In the meantime, the US economy soared at a faster pace last quarter than previously estimated, but the stronger gains only help bring the year's growth rate back in line with the long, sluggish expansion. According to the Commerce Department the US GDP expanded at an inflation- and seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter.
Existing home sales in the United States rose for the third consecutive month in November, surprising markets and hitting their highest level for almost a decade. According to the National Association of Realtors, home resales advanced 0.7% to an annualized rate of 5.61 million units in the reported period, following October's downwardly revised rate of 5.57 million, surpassing analysts' expectations for a slight decline of 1.0% to a 5.52 million-unit pace and reaching the highest since February 2007. On an annual basis, sales increased 15.4% in November. According to the latest data published by Freddie Mac, the fixed 30- year mortgage rate has climbed around 60% to an average rate of 4.16% since Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election. Moreover, mortgage rates are likely to go even higher after the Fed rose its key interest rate to 0.75% from 0.50% last week as well projected three more hikes in 2017. Separately, the Energy Information Administration announced on Wednesday a 2.3 million barrel increase in US crude oil inventories during the week ending December 16, while market analysts anticipated a decline of 2.4 million barrels, following the preceding week's 2.6 million barrel slip.
US data might move the rate
There are some notable data releases scheduled for Tuesday. The S&P/CS Composite- 20HPI is set to be out at 14:00 GMT. However, trader should keep their eyes open at 15:00 GMT, when the CB Consumer Confidence will be released together with the Richmond Manufacturing Index. Although, the consumer confidence index is of the utmost importance on Tuesday.
EUR/USD remains squeezed in
Daily Chart: The common European currency remained stuck between the 2015 low level of 1.0462 and the weekly pivot point at 1.0435 against the US Dollar on Tuesday morning. It seems that it is more than likely possible that the currency exchange rate will remain in this level until next year. The reasons for that would be the fact that, by looking at the volume measures, on Monday only half of the usual trading volume occurred. Traders have taken not only Christmas off, but also the whole week. In the meantime, the previous forecast of a fall remains active.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The key to understanding the rate's bouncing between the two levels of significance is the hourly chart. The hourly chart depicts all of the hourly simple moving averages, which provide at moments resistance and support to the currency exchange rate. However, it needs to be taken into account that minor fluctuations occur in the borders of the Bollinger bands.
Hourly chart
Traders remain bullish
SWFX traders remain bullish on the pair, as 55% of open positions were long. Meanwhile, 59% of trader set up orders were to sell the Euro.
OANDA trader bullish sentiment remains unchanged, as 55% of open EUR/USD positions were long on Tuesday. Meanwhile, SAXO bank traders remain bearish, as 54.37% of open positions were short, compared to 56.26% before.