- SWFX market sentiment is 57% bullish
- Trader pending orders are 62% to sell
- Pair opened Friday's session at 1.0434
- Upcoming Events: US New Home Sales; Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
New orders for US-made capital goods advanced more than expected in November due to strong demand for machinery and primary metals, suggesting some of the oil-related drag on manufacturing was starting to fade. According to the Commerce Department non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a went up 0.9% after an unrevised 0.2% gain in October. Moreover, there were increases in orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components, as well as computers and electronic products. A drop in oil prices last year, together with a surge in the dollar, pressured manufacturing. Much of the impact has been through weak business spending on equipment, which has contracted for four consecutive quarters. However, with oil prices hovering above $50 per barrel, manufacturing, which accounts for 12% of the US economy, is starting to perk up. In the meantime, the US economy soared at a faster pace last quarter than previously estimated, but the stronger gains only help bring the year's growth rate back in line with the long, sluggish expansion. According to the Commerce Department the US GDP expanded at an inflation- and seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter.
Existing home sales in the United States rose for the third consecutive month in November, surprising markets and hitting their highest level for almost a decade. According to the National Association of Realtors, home resales advanced 0.7% to an annualized rate of 5.61 million units in the reported period, following October's downwardly revised rate of 5.57 million, surpassing analysts' expectations for a slight decline of 1.0% to a 5.52 million-unit pace and reaching the highest since February 2007. On an annual basis, sales increased 15.4% in November. According to the latest data published by Freddie Mac, the fixed 30- year mortgage rate has climbed around 60% to an average rate of 4.16% since Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election. Moreover, mortgage rates are likely to go even higher after the Fed rose its key interest rate to 0.75% from 0.50% last week as well projected three more hikes in 2017. Separately, the Energy Information Administration announced on Wednesday a 2.3 million barrel increase in US crude oil inventories during the week ending December 16, while market analysts anticipated a decline of 2.4 million barrels, following the preceding week's 2.6 million barrel slip.
Minor US Data before Christmas
After the huge data dump on Thursday there are still some leftovers coming from the US. New US Home Sales and the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment index are set to be released at 15:00 GMT. Both of these data releases are rated as medium impact by many in the markets. However, in the recent six months they have not made a single notable impact on the markets.
EUR/USD remains below 2015 low
Daily Chart: The Euro slightly surged on Friday morning against the Greenback. However, the currency exchange rate still remained below the 2015 low level. Previously, during Thursday's trading session the currency pair booked few gains. However, it did fluctuate more to the upside and even touched the weekly PP, which is located at 1.0495. Due to the almost unchanged technical situation and the stagnant level of the rate, it can be assumed that the reversal of the pair's direction is still in the making.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart shows nothing much except the pairs bouncing below the 2015 low level. However, there is one exception. At 15:00 GMT, when the worse than expected US fundamental data came out, the currency exchange rate jumped to 1.05 mark. Although, as it is usually in such cases, the pair retreated afterwards to continue trading below the 2015 low level of 1.0462.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment remains unchanged
Traders have not changed their opinion. 57% of SWFX open positions remain long. Meanwhile, 62% of pending commands are set up to sell the Euro.
OANDA trader bullish sentiment continued to slightly decrease on Friday, as 54.57% of open EUR/USD positions were long, compared to 55.65% on Thursday. Meanwhile, SAXO bank traders increased their bearish sentiment, as 56.30% of open positions were short, compared to 52.23% before.