- SWFX market sentiment is 57% bullish
- Trader pending orders are 59% to sell
- Pair opened Thursday's session at 1.0422
- Upcoming Events: US Core Durable Goods Orders; US Final GDP; US Unemployment Claims; US Durable Goods Orders; US HPI; US Personal Spending; US Personal Income; US CB Leading Index
Existing home sales in the United States rose for the third consecutive month in November, surprising markets and hitting their highest level for almost a decade. According to the National Association of Realtors, home resales advanced 0.7% to an annualized rate of 5.61 million units in the reported period, following October's downwardly revised rate of 5.57 million, surpassing analysts' expectations for a slight decline of 1.0% to a 5.52 million-unit pace and reaching the highest since February 2007. On an annual basis, sales increased 15.4% in November. According to the latest data published by Freddie Mac, the fixed 30- year mortgage rate has climbed around 60% to an average rate of 4.16% since Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election. Moreover, mortgage rates are likely to go even higher after the Fed rose its key interest rate to 0.75% from 0.50% last week as well projected three more hikes in 2017. Separately, the Energy Information Administration announced on Wednesday a 2.3 million barrel increase in US crude oil inventories during the week ending December 16, while market analysts anticipated a decline of 2.4 million barrels, following the preceding week's 2.6 million barrel slip.
German business morale rose to the highest level in December since February 2014, suggesting the country's businesses were not affected by Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US presidential elections. The Munich-based Ifo Institute said its Business Climate Index, which is based on approximately 7,000 monthly survey responses in the manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail sectors, advanced to 111.0 from 110.4 points seen in November, while market analysts anticipated a slight acceleration to 110.7 in the reported period. Shortly after, the Bundesbank said the German economy is likely rebounded more strongly than initially thought in the last quarter of 2016 after expanding just 0.2% quarter-over quarter and 1.5% year-over-year in the Q3. Ifo also reported the Current Assessment Index climbed to 116.6 points in December, following the preceding month's 115.6 and surpassing analysts' expectations for 115.9. Furthermore, the Business Expectations Index, which measures how local businesses foresee the next six months, increased to 105.6 in the same month from November's 105.5, matching economists' projections. As a result, the Euro rose slightly against the US Dollar and British Pound, trading at 1.0468 and 0.8381, respectively.
Loads of US data after a quiet week
It seems that instead of consistently providing the markets with data US statisticians have decided to release everything today and take a day off on Friday before Christmas. The data will begin incoming at 13:30 GMT, when the US Durable Goods Orders and US Core Durable Goods Orders will be out. In addition, the Final GDP will be published. Moreover, the US Unemployment Claims will be released at the same time. That is not all for that time, as the US Final GDP Price Index also will be released at 13:30 GMT. If that will not be enough to establish an understanding of the future movements of the US Dollar and the markets, there will be an additional data release at 15:00 GMT. At that time the US Core PCE Price Index, US CB Leading Index, Personal Spending and Personal Income will be released in the common pool of information.
EUR/USD meets resistance on Thursday morning
Daily Chart: The Euro had slightly surged on early Thursday morning against the US Dollar. However, as the whole rate was reviewed on Wednesday, it was revealed that the pair is about to encounter a strong resistance cluster made up of three upper trend lines of various patterns. Due to that on early Thursday morning the rate bounced off the resistance level at the 1.0449 mark. Moreover, this move is consistent with the medium term descending channel pattern, as its upper trend line is also part of the cluster.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that the Tuesday's rebound is still in progress. Namely, the EUR/USD currency pair is trading in a short term ascending channel. However, for additional information on the situation on the pair on the hourly chart traders should look up the trade pattern ideas section, where the full disclosure on the situation has been published.
Hourly chart
SWFX traders remain bullish
SWFX traders remain bullish, as 57% of open positions were long on Thursday morning. Meanwhile, 59% of trader set up orders were to sell.
OANDA trader bullish sentiment continued to slightly decrease on Thursday, as 55.65% of open EUR/USD positions were long, compared to 56.24% on Wednesday. Meanwhile, SAXO bank traders remained bearish, as 52.23% of open positions were short.