- SWFX market sentiment is 59% bullish
- Trader pending orders are 63% to sell
- Pair opened Monday's session at the 1.0590 level
- Aggregate daily technical indicators bet EUR/USD will remain unchanged
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: Draghi's Speech
US consumer prices see the biggest increase in six months in October amid higher gasoline and rent costs. According to the US Department of Labor, the Consumer Price Index advanced 0.4% last month, following September's gain of 0.3%. On a yearly basis, consumer prices grew 1.6% in October, the largest annual increase since October 2014, up from the preceding month's 1.5%. Both readings came in line with analysts' expectations. Nevertheless, the so-called core CPI, which excludes prices for volatile items such as energy and food, rose 0.1% in the reported month, unchanged from September, while market analysts anticipated a slight increase to 0.2%. Year-over-year, core consumer prices fell to 2.1% in October, following the prior month's 2.2% gain. Higher inflation as well as the strong labor market are likely to encourage the Federal Reserve to raise its key interest rates at its next meeting in December. The Central bank increased its key overnight interest rate in December 2015 for the first time since the global financial crisis. The Labor Department said gasoline prices surged 7.0%, up from September's 5.8%, whereas food prices remained unchanged. Within components of the core CPI, rents rose 0.4%, while medical care costs were unchanged. The price of prescription drugs rose 0.2%.
The single currency economy expanded in the third quarter, showing a 0.3% in the region's gross domestic product (GDP) on the previous three months and up 1.6% on a yearly basis. The figures were spurred by a rebound in smaller countries, including Portugal, which saw its fastest growth pace since 2013. During the last week, the European Commission cut its GDP forecasts for the euro area on advanced political uncertainty and weaker global trade. The EU expects the currency bloc to grow 1.7% this year and 1.5% in 2017, after climbing 2% in 2015. In the meantime European stocks were mixed on Tuesday, as market sentiment remained globally positive following the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States last week, while disappointing German third-quarter growth weighed. Moreover, earlier on Tuesday, preliminary data showed that German gross domestic product went up 2% in the third quarter, disappointing expectations for an increase of 0.3% and down from a growth rate of 0.4% in the previous quarter.
Upcoming fundamentals: Draghi's Speech
The President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, already spoke on Friday at 8:30 GMT. However it seems that he forgot to say everything. That is because Mr. Draghi has scheduled another speech at 16:00 GMT on Monday. It remains, however, unlikely that the statements could shake the EUR/USD market significantly, as the US fundamentals dominate the markets.
EUR/USD marks two straight weeks of losses
Daily Chart: The common European currency was almost unchanged against the US Dollar on Monday morning near the level of 1.06. However, the pair still was in the middle of the descending channel pattern, in which it had been moving lower since encountering the 55 and 100-day SMAs at 1.1135 on third of November. It is most likely that the currency exchange rate will continue to move lower, as the closest support cluster is located around the 1.0520 level. The pair will probably find support there at some point during the week.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart for the EUR/USD pair reveals that the rate hit the resistance put up by the monthly S2 at 1.0632 at 12:00 GMT on Friday. However, it was the descending channel's upper trend line, which put an end to the surge. Since then the pair has been fluctuating between the Bollinger bands, and the rate might make another attempt at the previously mentioned resistance. Although, this time the monthly S2 is set to be reinforced by the upper Bollinger band at 1.0628 and the 55-hour SMA at 1.0636.
Hourly chart
Traders remain bullish
SWFX traders remain bullish on the pair, as 59% of open positions were long on Monday. Meanwhile, trader set up pending commands remain bearish, namely 63% of set up orders are to sell.
OANDA traders have decreased their bullish outlook, as 66.47% of open EUR/USD positions are long on Monday, compared to 67.11% long positions on Friday. Additionally, SAXO Bank clients have decreased their bullish outlook as well, as 56.20% open positions are long, compared to 57.36% during the previous trading session.