- Sell orders dropped from 58 to 55%
- 46% of traders are long and 54% are short
- Major resistance is at 1.1170
- If 1.1170 holds, March low to become new target
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: UK Referendum Reaction, US Core Durable Goods Orders, UoM Consumer Sentiment
Eurozone's manufacturing sector bounced surprisingly in June on slight support from the global economy, but the counter political uncertainty in the entire euro area has sparked more of a disappointment, driving down overall business growth in the economy. Market flash manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index PMI rose to 52.6 in June, from 51.5 in May and well above market anticipation of 51.3. However, the Markit Composite PMI index, which combines the manufacturing and services sectors, edged lower to 52.8 from 53.1 in May. This is the worst reading since January 2015. The consensus analyst estimate was 53.1.
Meanwhile, growth in Germany's private sector ended the second quarter with a bigger-than-expected deceleration, a private survey estimated on Thursday, as a surprising upturn in manufacturing did not manage to offset weakness in services. Markit's Composite PMI, which tracks the manufacturing and services activity that accounts for more than two-thirds of the German economy, decelerated to 54.1 during the sixth month of the year, down from 54.5 seen in May, when it hit a joint five-month high. Analysts had predicted a mild downturn to 54.3 in June. The Services PMI fell to 53.2 in June from 55.2 in May, while the Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.4 from 52.1.
German business climate helps Euro recover
A hit the Euro took earlier this morning has just been somewhat alleviated by the positive numbers from Germany, where Ifo Business Climate Index came in at 108.7, confidently above the consensus of 107.6 and the previous reading of 107.7. Accordingly, if the news from the US later today on the durable goods and consumer sentiment disappoint, EUR/USD will be able to negate most of today's morning plunge.
EUR/USD pierces through trend-line, 200-day SMA
EUR/USD has already plummeted through most of the key supports, including the 200-day SMA, May low and the lower bound of the ascending channel. There is a possibility that the pair will be able to recover back above some of these supports today to preserve the long-term bullish outlook, but the chances are slim, considering that the 200-day SMA is at the 38.2% retracement level of today's sell-off, while the trend-line is between the 50 and 61.8% retracements. If the price stays below 1.11 today, our target will be the March low at 1.08 dollars.Daily chart
In the hourly chart EUR/USD has already managed to offset a half of the decline from 1.1420, but it may find strong resistance at 1.1170, which is highly unlikely to give in, especially if the US releases today are in line or better than the forecasts.
Hourly chart
Market sentiment slightly improves
In the meantime, some OANDA traders appear to have used a drop in the Euro to go long the currency. Now, 46 instead of 41% of traders are bullish EUR/USD. A similar change was observed with the bulls at SAXO Bank, where the portion of bulls rose from 39 to 44%.