- SWFX market sentiment is 56% bearish
- Pending commands in the 100-pip range are bearish (54%)
- Pair reached 1.14 level on Wednesday
- Aggregate daily technical indicators bet EUR/USD will remain unchanged
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: ECB President's Draghi's Speech; ECB's Constancio Speech; US Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 4); German CPI (May); Bundesbank President's Weidmann's Speech
Manufacturing production in the UK advanced further bolstering optimism about the domestic economy. UK manufacturing as well as industrial production data outperformed major economists' expectations in April being mainly influenced by the weaker cable due to upcoming Britain's EU referendum. According to the latest figures released by the Office of National Statistics, manufacturing production skyrocketed 2.3%, against March's 0.1%, and an expected growth of 0%. Industrial production, in turn, jumped by 2% in April, adding 0.3% from March, and far above the 0% reading expected. On a yearly pace, manufacturing production added 0.8%, showing much better results than a forecasts for a 1.5% decline as well as after a steep 1.9% drop in March. Concerning industrial production, this data demonstrated an increase of 2.0% following a gain of 0.3% in the preceding month and in line with forecasts. Meanwhile, analysts warned that despite such a positive figures which provided a strong boost to the economy, it was still too early to say whether the industrial sector had totally strengthened. Moreover, following data spurred the pound, which currently is suffering upcoming Brexit poll's results.
According to the official data Chinese trade surplus rose less-thanexpected last month. The report released by National Bureau of Statistics of China announced that Chinese trade balance rose to 49.98B, from 45.56B during the preceding month. Moreover, economists had expected data to reach 58.00B mark during the last month. In the meantime, value of China's exports continues to decline further in dollar terms during the previous month in line with expectations. Chinese imports, in turn, contracted at their slowest pace since 2014 in May, suggesting that government stimulus measures focused on housing and infrastructure are succeeding in stabilising demand. Chinese imports of unwrought copper and copper products plunged 3.7% on a monthly pace to 430,000 tonnes in May. This pushed imports to 2.31 million tonnes in January-May, up 22.1% year-on-year period. Meanwhile, analysts from Australian and New Zealand Bank do not expect strong rebound in import data since they predict that domestic demand will likely edge down on a tighter credit environment. Also, it is worth to point out that trading in China is expected to slow ahead of Chinese CPI as well as businesses will close for the Dragon Boat festival on Thursday and Friday.
Upcoming fundamentals: Central bank presidents speak in Europe
Thursday is going to be a busy day in Europe, as ECB President Mario Draghi is set to speak at 7:00 GMT and Constancio speaks at 9:00 GMT. Afterwards there will be a pause between speeches, as US initial jobless claims will be published at 12:30, which are expected to be around 270,000. In the early tomorrow morning German month to month and annual consumer price index changes are incoming at 6:00 GMT. And last but not least, Bundesbank's President Weidmann will speak at Bundesbank Spring Conference at 7:00 GMT.
EUR/USD passes 1.14 on Wednesday
Daily chart: The Euro continued appreciating against the US Dollar on Wednesday, as the Greenback lost strength due to the fact that a Federal Reserve rate hike is becoming more and more unlikely. The pair jumped last Thursday on disappointing US non-farm payrolls data and gained strength since then. At the moment the currency exchange rate is at 1.4062 and it is moving north to the cluster of resistances around 1.1460 where the weekly and monthly first resistances and the upper Bollinger band are located. However, aggregate technical indicators forecast no changes for the pair today.Daily chart
Hourly chart: In the meantime, the hourly chart shows that the Euro against the US Dollar for the fourth consecutive day keeps bouncing between the upper Bollinger band and various supports below. On Wednesday the pair surged from 1.1355 at the 55-hour SMA and moved to the 1.1400 and bounced off the upper Bollinger band once around midday. The currency exchange rate now is facing the 20-hour SMA at 1.1396. If the pair passes the SMA, it will move to the daily PP at 1.1386. However, taking into account the aggregate daily technical indicator forecast, it seems that the pair will keep bouncing up and down during the day.
Hourly chart
SWFX traders continue bearish sentiment
OANDA market sentiment is less bearish today compared to yesterday, as 57.28% of open positions are short. Alongside, SAXO Bank clients have increased their bearish stance, as their open short positions are now at 68.02% compared to 66.08% yesterday.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade at 1.12 by August
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between May 9 and June 9 expect, on average, the currency pair around 1.12 by the end of August. Though 54% (+2%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally below 1.12 in ninety days, with 32% alone seeing it below 1.08. Alongside, only 24% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.12 and 1.18 on August 31.Dukascopy Community members are bearish on this week's perspectives of EUR/USD
56.6% of the Dukascopy Community members are expecting a decline in the value of the Euro against the Greenback by the end of this working week. The median estimate for June 10 stands slightly above 1.12. Among traders, Khimitau suggests that "After a 20 days down trend the pair has found support around 1,13 and a strong contra trend move is visible. Thought I am expecting a trend continuation with the pair reaching the EME(20) around 1.128".
At the same time, trader megajorko is bullish stating that ""There is a big probability of a big opening gap due to the absolute surprising NFP. Technicals show that channel down is still intact and only the time can show if this is true".