- SWFX market sentiment is neutral
- Pending commands in the 50-pip range are mostly (56%) placed to buy the Euro
- Pair is still above 200-day SMA and the lower pattern line
- Aggregate daily technical indicator bets EUR/USD is going to depreciate
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: German Manufacturing PMI (May); French Manufacturing PMI (May); Italian Manufacturing PMI (May); Euro zone's Manufacturing PMI (May)
The jobless rate in the Euro zone remained at its lowest level since August 2011 in April, but was still higher than before the crisis. According to Eurostat, the unemployment rate in the 19-nation currency club was 10.2% in April, stable compared with March 2016, in line with market expectations and down from 11.0% in April 2015. This was the lowest rate recorded in the Euro zone since August 2011, when the currency bloc was mired in a debt crisis that raised questions over the future of the single currency bloc. The lowest unemployment rates were recorded in the Czech Republic - 4.1%, Germany - 4.2% and Malta - 4.3%, while the country with the highest unemployment rates was Greece - 24.2%, followed by Spain - 20.1%. In addition, a separate report showed that the annual inflation rate in the Euro area remained in negative territory for the fourth consecutive month in May. Consumer prices in the 19-nation euro bloc trashed 0.1% on an annual and seasonally adjusted basis in the fifth month of the year, the highly anticipated headline CPI from Eurostat revealed, while market expectations had been for a 0.1% fall in May. Meanwhile, the core measure, which excludes alcohol, tobacco, food and energy, rose 0.8% on an annual and non-seasonally adjusted basis in May, in line with analysts' expectations of an unchanged figure, after rising 0.7% in April.
The Canadian economy narrowed in March for a second consecutive month as real gross domestic product grew at a slower-than-expected pace for the first three months of the year. According to Canada's Statistical Bureau the real GDP grew at an annual pace of 2.4% in the first quarter. But despite that growth, the economy contracted by 0.2% in March, following a 0.1% decline in February. Meanwhile, the following data proved to be weaker that majority of economists had expected. Canada is very unusual among major economies in producing monthly data with the economy inevitably subject to high volatility and potentially misleading data. Meanwhile, weakness in the retail and manufacturing sectors had already been marked by weak monthly data, but will still be an important concern for the Bank of Canada. Taking into account strong damage from the Alberta wildfires as well as oil-production disruption, there will be even more pressure on the non-oil economy to support the economy as a whole thus pushing the bank to consider additional stimulus if there is no evidence of improvement within the next few months.
Upcoming fundamentals: European PMI Manufacturing indices
Most influential European Union countries are about to publish their PMI Manufacturing indices for May. Among them is Italy at 7:45 GMT, France at 7:50 GMT and Germany at 7:55 GMT. After the individual countries' announcements the aggregate Euro zone's index will be out at 8:00 GMT. Experts are concentrating their attention at the German index and the aggregate union's index. The predictions are 52.4 points for German purchasing manager's index and 51.5 for the whole currency bloc. In the meantime, at 8:30 GMT the United Kingdom will publish its manufacturing PMI, which is forecasted at 49.9 points.
EUR/USD bounces off 200-hour SMA
Daily chart: EUR/USD continued its rally in the first half of Tuesday and reached the 200-hour SMA at 1.1170. However, the pair bounced off the moving average midday and depreciated to 1.1130 at the end of the day, 20 pips lower than the 1.1150 level reached earlier the same day. With the start of Wednesday the currency exchange rate continued moving downwards and at the moment has reached the 1.1121 level. In the meantime, aggregate technical indicators for today predict depreciation of the Euro against the US Dollar.Daily chart
Hourly chart: Although from the perspective of the 1H chart the yesterday's rebound of EUR/USD looks reasonable, the currency pair is unlikely to grow for a long period of time. The first and foremost resistance is the 200-hour SMA at 1.1177. On top of that, the bulls are inevitably going to face the late-May downtrend at about 1.1195. When hitting them, the pair is expected to observe an increased pressure from the bearish side.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment becomes mostly neutral
OANDA market sentiment is still bearish, as the number of short positions rose again to 52% by the June 1 morning. Alongside, SAXO Bank traders have decreased the short view by 1% to 58% from the previous day's 59%.