- SWFX market sentiment is steady, as bears are keeping 52%
- Important signal is coming from pending orders, as they turned bullish for first time in 13 days
- Any rally above 200-day SMA at 1.1045 will neutralise current ECB-driven bearish outlook
- Half of all daily technical indicators are pointing to the downside and only one of them is now set to "buy"
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: Euro zone GDP (Q4)
German factory orders dropped for a second month in a row in January amid global slowdown and moribund domestic pricing power. Orders declined a seasonally adjusted 0.1% from December, when they dropped a revised 0.2% compared with the previously reported decrease of 0.7%, according to the Economy Ministry. While domestic orders fell 1.6% in January, foreign orders climbed 1.0%, with booking from the Euro zone surging 7.5%. While the German economy is benefitting from all-time low unemployment that is underpinning domestic demand, corporate confidence has been hit by market turbulence and concerns that Euro bloc's recovery might wane. Exporters are struggling with a China-driven slowdown in emerging markets. Against all the odds, the Euro zone's number one economy continue to grow, reaching the same level as registered in the third quarter of 2015. Germany's economy expanded 0.3% during the December quarter, while the annual non-seasonally adjusted growth rate was 2.1%, the highest reading since the first quarter of 2014. The real GDP is predicted to increase by 1.8% in 2016 and 2017, according to the European Commission's latest 2016 Winter Economic forecast. The German economy will benefit from a robust labour market, low oil prices, additional public spending, as well as favourable financing conditions.
Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer noted that US inflation may be starting to edge higher from too-low levels, a key condition for further interest rate hike. However, Lael Brainard, Fed Governor, voiced uncertainty about whether a strengthening labour market would be sufficient to support inflation amid persistently low oil prices and a strong US Dollar. Lael insisted on a cautious approach regarding rate hikes. Both Fischer and Brainard vote on the Fed's policymaking committee, which will publish its policy decision and outlook next week. The difference in views may not matter at the moment, when the US central bank policy makers meet next week. A rate hike is not expected at the meeting after weeks in which oil prices have remained stubbornly low and global stock market have been volatile. While Fischer agreed that prices were being dragged by falling energy prices and strong Greenback, he expects those factors to fade soon, allowing inflation to get closer to the target. Inflation by the Fed's preferred measure has been running below target for more than four years. It had climbed just 0.7% over the 12 months ending in December. In January however, the measure of inflation advanced, rising 1.3% over the past 12 months. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, increased 1.7%.
Upcoming fundamentals: Markets prepare for ECB during silent Tuesday
There are many important events scheduled for the second part of this week, while on Tuesday the economic calendar is not expected to surprise us with any vital statistics that is going to put weight on the EUR/USD currency pair and other EUR-crosses. The revised economic growth data for the Euro zone is up at 10:00 GMT. Here analysts see no revision to the preliminary estimate of 0.3% on a quarterly basis in October-December 2015. Annual GDP advance is estimated to be confirmed at 1.5%. Meantime, US session is forecasted to bring completely no fundamentals at all.
EUR/USD plans to attack 200-day SMA
EUR/USD advanced for a third trading day in a row on Monday and neared the monthly pivot point at 1.1021, which is succeeded by the 200-day SMA at 1.1045. Bullish momentum is strong, and it was able to reverse earlier intraday losses yesterday. We are now looking for an attack on the biggest moving average line, a spike above which will further increase upside risks. Nevertheless, daily technical studies continue to disagree with this idea, but to activate the bearish outlook the pair has to close below the 55-day SMA and weekly pivot point at 1.0974/58.Daily chart
A rally of the Euro during American session on Monday has sent the currency pair above two important technical levels, one of which is the mid-February downtrend and another is the January uptrend. Ability to consolidate above here will provide a substantial bullish signal for the market. From the technical point of view, the nearest possible resistance to meet will be the previous month's high at 1.1377, followed by the five-month uptrend/September high at 1.1459.
Hourly chart
Sentiment is bearish, but pending orders switch to positive territory
OANDA and SAXO Bank sentiment has been little changed over Monday. In both markets the bears are holding more than 50% of all open transactions at the moment. The only difference is the scope of the gap between the longs and shorts, which is about six pp with OANDA and reaches as much as 24% with SAXO Bank.