- 53% of pending orders are set to buy
- The same percentage of open positions is positive
- Key resistance is placed around 1.10
- Short term demand can be found at 1.0893
- Economic events to follow in the next 24 hours: French, German, Euro zone and US Manufacturing PMI (Jul), US Personal Spending (Jun)
Among fundamentals, consumer inflation in the Euro zone barely climbed from the previous year in July, while the number of unemployed rose in June, adding to signs that the ECB's QE programme has yet to deliver the desired results. According to Eurostat, consumer prices in the region were 0.2% higher than in July 2013, considerably below the central bank's goal of just under 2%. Inflation was subdued by a renewed decline in energy prices, which dropped 5.6% from a year earlier. Nevertheless, there were signs that the prices of other goods and services have begun to tick up. Excluding prices for volatile energy, food and alcohol, the core annual rate climbed to 1.0% from 0.8%.
A separate report showed the number of people without jobs in the Euro bloc increased in June by 31,000, while the jobless rate remained intact at 11.1%, maintaining its lowest level in three years. The number of unemployed in Germany surprisingly rose by 9,000 in July, whereas the unemployment rate remained unchanged at its record low of 6.4%. The reading came in much worse than analysts' predictions for a 5,000 decline. The unemployment rate in Italy, the third largest economy in the Euro bloc, also worsened. The number of registered unemployed in June made up 12.7% of the economically active population. Yet, Greece remains a record-holder, with the jobless rate at 25.6%.
Upcoming fundamentals: PMI data in EU/US in focus today
The world's major economies are expected to continue expanding their production sectors. Among them, the PMI readings are going to be published in France (7:50 GMT), Germany (8:00 GMT) and US (14:00 GMT). Only the Fifth Republic has the activity gauge below 50 points at the moment, which divides growth from contraction. Additionally today, US consumers have probably spent 0.2% more in June on a monthly basis, following data which showed a 0.9% jump back in May. The numbers will be announced by 12:30 GMT.
EUR/USD fails to sustain growth above 1.10
EUR/USD ended the previous trading week slightly below the 1.10 mark, as it managed to recover only losses of Thursday's session. The mentioned round level seems to act as a strong barrier for bulls at the moment. It should be added that all attempts of the Euro to surge as high as 1.11 were negated by the market. The focus among long market participants is now turning to the monthly pivot point at 1.1002, which is reinforced by the 20-day SMA. However, bears are still there and they are aiming at the recent low (1.0893).Daily chart
Meanwhile, the one-hour chart tends to concentrate our attention on the downtrend, which can be found in the area of 1.11. Unless this mark is crossed, the pair will most likely continue edging lower. Moreover, the bearish scenario is also proved by the penetration of another uptrend on July 29.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment and commands turn positive
Meanwhile, OANDA traders are keeping only 40% of long open positions, while SAXO Bank market participants are also remaining strongly pessimistic towards the common currency, as their share of longs takes up just 34%.