Gold fluctuates above 1,230 mark

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX traders are 51% bullish
  • 66% of pending commands are to buy the metal
  • The bullion opened at 1,229.45
  • Upcoming Events: FOMC Member's Evans's Speech; US President's Donald Trump's Speech
The yellow metal continues to score gains, as it approaches the monthly PP, which is located at the 1,236.39 level. It is highly possible that the resistance will be broken, as it is after all a lone level of significance, which might not be strong enough to stop the surge of the bullion. Moreover, it can be observed on the hourly chart that the bullion is just taking its time.

US industrial production was unchanged last month, while market analysts anticipated an increase, official figures revealed on Friday. The Federal Reserve reported factory production came in at 0.0% in February, falling behind analysts' expectations for a gain of 0.3%. Meanwhile, January's initially reported drop of 0.3% was revised to a 0.1% fall. However, manufacturing production, which accounts for 75% of overall industrial output, posted a 0.5% increase in February that matched the preceding month's rise. A global economic recovery, stronger business investment in equipment and appropriate inventory levels allowed manufacturers to gain momentum over the last several months.

The advance in manufacturing output was in line with analysts' forecasts. Data also showed utility output decreased 5.7%, following a 5.8% decline in January. The fall was mainly driven by unusually warm temperatures. Mining production rose 2.7% last month, boosted by oil and gas drilling. Business equipment output advanced 0.7% in February, compared to a 0.1% decline registered in the prior month, whereas production of construction supplies increased 1.3% after climbing 1.4% in January. Other data released on Friday showed mood of American shoppers jumped to 97.6 in March, according to the preliminary reading released by the University of Michigan.

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Upcoming events: Monetary and fiscal speeches

Today's trading session will be all talk and no walk, as medium impact speeches are set to occur during the day. In the second half of the day FOMC member Evans is set to speak at 17:10 GMT. However, the most important event of the day will be Donald Trump's speech at 11:30 GMT.



Gold trades above 1,230 level

Daily chart: On Monday morning the yellow metal's price continued its way higher, as the bullion traded above the 1,230 mark. The commodity price is set to face the resistance put up by the monthly PP, which is located at the 1,236.39 level. The pivot point is a lone resistance, and it is highly possible that it will be broken. In that case the metal will be set to face another lone resistance level, as the weekly R1 is located at the 1,242.38 mark. On the other hand the metal might bounce off the monthly level of significance and retreat to the 20-day SMA, which is located at the 1,222.24 level.
Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that the bullion's effort to surge are being hindered by the upper Bollinger band of the hourly chart. The commodity price bounces between the 20-hour SMA and the upper band, as both of the level of significance are ascending. Moreover, the 55-hour SMA has recently approached the metal from the downside and is set to soon start providing additional support.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Markets remain bullish

Traders remain neutral bullish, as 51% of open positions are long. Meanwhile, 66% of trader set up orders are to buy the metal.

OANDA Gold traders have almost not changed their bullish outlook, as open positions are 69.42% long on Monday, compared to 70.43% previously. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank have decreased their bullish outlook, as 64.29% of open positions are long, compared to 66.43% on Friday.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility


Market participants foresee the price of Gold being at 1,300 in April

Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between February 20 and March 20 expect, on average, to see the metal near 1,300 in April. Generally, 47% (-2%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,300 in ninety days. Alongside, 38% (-1%) of those surveyed reckon the currencies will trade in the range between 1,100 and 1,300 over the next three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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