- 53% of all SWFX open positions are long
- 59% of pending commands were to buy the metal
- The bullion opened at 1,193.99
- Upcoming Events: US Core Retail Sales, US PPI; US Retail Sales; US Core PPI; US FOMC Member Harker Speaks; Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment
The number of Americans filing for unemployment aid advanced less than expected last week, official figures showed on Thursday. According to the Labor Department, initial claims rose 10,000 to 247,000 during the week ending January 7. This marked the 97th consecutive week that claims remained below the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. Thursday's report also showed that continuous claims dropped 29,000 to 2.09 million in the last week of 2016. Separately, the Labor Department reported that import prices climbed 0.4% in December, following the previous month's 0.2% decline. The increase was mainly driven by rising petroleum prices that jumped 7.9% during the reported period. On an annual basis, import prices increased 1.8%, the biggest rise since March 2012, after climbing 0.1% year-over-year in November.
Meanwhile, excluding petroleum, prices dropped 0.2% month-over-month in December, compared to the prior month's unchanged reading. The stronger US Dollar was the major reason behind the December decline. Over the last year, the Greenback appreciated greatly against the currencies of the US main trading partners, advancing 4.4%. Though it experienced the largest gains in the wake of Donald Trump's election. The major US stock markets ignored today's positive data, following Trump's disappointing press conference.
Upcoming fundamental releases: A data pack we plan to cover
Today will be a good day for volatility traders, as they finally get to do some work. As it is accustomed, the US data will impact the strength of the US Dollar, which will dictate exchange rates and commodity prices all across the board. The data release will occur at 13:30 GMT. It will consist of the core and simple Retail Sales and PPI's on a month to month change. Moreover, the Dukascopy team will cover this data release on the live webinar. However, that is not all that can be watched today, as at 14:30 GMT the FOMC member Harker is set to give a speech. In addition, at 15:00 GMT the Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment will be released.
Gold retreats back below 1,200 mark
Daily chart: After surge on Thursday morning the yellow metal retreated to trade back below the 1,200 mark on Friday morning. The move lower occurred due to the fact that in the aftermath of Trump's speech market participants overbought the bullion, and a correction occurred after that. With the surge the long term descending channel has been broken. Due to that the ascending medium term pattern is the one to guide the metal, and it states that the bullion will surge. In addition, the metal has strong support near the 1, 190 mark.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that although the large scale descending channel pattern has been broken, its upper trend line is providing support to the bullion. At 02:00 GMT on Friday the rate rebounded against that support level and began to move higher. In addition, by 8:00 GMT the commodity price began to break the last resistances below the 1,203.50 level, where the upper Bollinger band is located at.
Hourly chart
SWFX trader sentiment bullish
OANDA Gold traders have increased their largely optimistic outlook on the yellow metal, as open positions were 76% bullish on Friday, compared to 73% previously. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank have also increased their bullish outlook in terms of prospects for the metal, as today showed 62.98% of traders betting the metal will surge, compared to 62.98% during the previous session.