- 60% of all SWFX open positions are long
- 62% of pending commands were to buy the metal
- Gold opened Thursday's session at 1,130.95
- Upcoming Events: US Core Durable Goods Orders; US Final GDP; US Unemployment Claims; US Durable Goods Orders; US HPI; US Personal Spending; US Personal Income; US CB Leading Index
Existing home sales in the United States rose for the third consecutive month in November, surprising markets and hitting their highest level for almost a decade. According to the National Association of Realtors, home resales advanced 0.7% to an annualized rate of 5.61 million units in the reported period, following October's downwardly revised rate of 5.57 million, surpassing analysts' expectations for a slight decline of 1.0% to a 5.52 million-unit pace and reaching the highest since February 2007. On an annual basis, sales increased 15.4% in November. According to the latest data published by Freddie Mac, the fixed 30- year mortgage rate has climbed around 60% to an average rate of 4.16% since Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election. Moreover, mortgage rates are likely to go even higher after the Fed rose its key interest rate to 0.75% from 0.50% last week as well projected three more hikes in 2017. Separately, the Energy Information Administration announced on Wednesday a 2.3 million barrel increase in US crude oil inventories during the week ending December 16, while market analysts anticipated a decline of 2.4 million barrels, following the preceding week's 2.6 million barrel slip.
Both building permits and housing starts dropped more than expected last month, suggesting that the Q4 growth rate could be possibly revised downwards. According to the US Department of Commerce, new-home construction fell 18.7%, the biggest decrease in almost two years, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.09 million units in November, while market analysts anticipated a slight deceleration to 1.23 million during the reported period. Housing starts tend to be volatile on a monthly basis. Meanwhile, the October figure was revised up to a 1.34 million-unit pace, the highest level since July 2007, from the originally reported 1.32 million. The Commerce Department also reported that building permits declined 4.7% to an annualized rate of 1.20 million units, following October's upwardly revised reading of 1.26 million, whereas economists expected them to decrease to a 1.24 million unit pace. Nevertheless, the National Association of Homebuilder's sentiment measure, released on Thursday, jumped to 70 points in December, the highest level in 11 years, compared to the previous month's figure of 63. December's increase was driven in large part by Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US presidential elections last month.
Loads of US data after a quiet week
It seems that instead of consistently providing the markets with data US statisticians have decided to release everything today and take a day off on Friday before Christmas. The data will begin incoming at 13:30 GMT, when the US Durable Goods Orders and US Core Durable Goods Orders will be out. In addition, the Final GDP will be published. Moreover, the US Unemployment Claims will be released at the same time. That is not all for that time, as the US Final GDP Price Index also will be released at 13:30 GMT. If that will not be enough to establish an understanding of the future movements of the US Dollar and the markets, there will be an additional data release at 15:00 GMT. At that time the US Core PCE Price Index, US CB Leading Index, Personal Spending and Personal Income will be released in the common pool of information.
Gold slowly moves lower
Daily chart: The yellow metal remained almost unchanged on Thursday morning. However, it had shown slightly more volatility to the downside. Previously, on Wednesday the bullion fluctuated more to the upside, and it seemed that the commodity price will regain its Tuesday's losses. However, that did not occur, as by end of the session the metal's price declined, and the session ended at the 1,130.63 mark. It is most likely that the metal will continue to slowly depreciate until the end of the week.Daily chart
Hourly chart: As forecasted before, the hourly chart shows that the yellow metal failed to break through the combined resistance of the 20, 55 and 100-hour SMAs. Instead the bullion fell sharply after the failure to break through at 16:00 GMT on Wednesday. Since then the commodity prices has been continuing its way lower, as the 20-hour SMA and the lower Bollinger band guide it.
Hourly chart
Trader sentiment unchanged
OANDA Gold traders remain optimistic regarding the Bullion on Thursday, as open positions were 75.19% long, compared to 75.81% on Wednesday. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank seem to have in their bullish stance, as Thursday showed 69.51% of traders betting the metal will surge, compared to 67.21% during the previous session.