- 60% of all SWFX open positions are long
- Pending orders optimistic with 59% to buy
- Gold opened Friday's session at 1,170.14
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped from five-week highs last week, official figures revealed on Thursday. According to the US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims fell to 258,000 in the week ending December 2 after rising to 268,000 in the preceding week. That was in line with analysts' projections. Initial claims remained below the 300,000 level for the 92nd straight week, the longest streak since 1973. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims, which is considered a better measure of labor market trends, advanced 1,000 to 252,500 in the reported period. Many economists believe the US economy is at or near full employment, with the unemployment rate at 4.6%. Thursday's report also showed that the number of so-called continuing claims decreased 79,000 to 2.01 million during the week ended November 26, while their four-week moving average dropped 9,5000 to 2.03 million. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise its key interest rate by 25 basis points at its two-day policy meeting next week. The last time the Fed increased its benchmark overnight rate was in December last year, when the rate was increased from 0.25% to 0.5%. After the release, the US Dollar rose against other major currencies.
The United States' services sector activity hit its one-year high last month, official figures revealed on Monday. The Institute of Supply Management reported its Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index advanced to 57.2 in November from the previous month's 54.8 points. The November figure was the highest since October 2015 and marked the 82nd straight month of growth in the sector, while analysts anticipated the Index to come in at 55.3 in the reported month. Any reading above the 50 point level indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than twothirds of the US economy. Furthermore, the Employment Index climbed to 58.2 from October's 53.1 points, showing that hiring rose at a much faster pace in November. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 61.7 from 57.7 in October, while the New Orders Index dropped to 57.0 from 57.7 and the Prices Index came in at 56.3, losing 0.3 points during November. The majority of respondents expressed a positive view of the economy. Earlier, Markit's final Services PMI for the US came in at 54.6, slightly below the 54.8 point forecast. As a result, the EUR/USD was unchanged at 1.0728, while the GBP/USD fell to 1.2712 from 1.2716 from ahead of the release and the USD/JPY rose from 114.37 to 114.62.
Upcoming fundamentals: US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment
The US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment will be the single fundamental market mover on Friday, and could add some volatility at 15:00 GMT. Some low impact gauges could cause a surprise, but are unlikely to move the markets significantly.
Gold again faces tough 1,169.10
Daily chart: Gold opened Friday's session facing the established level of significance at 1169.10 which leaves little to the broken upper trend-line of the monthly channel. XAU/USD has not been able to step under the area for the seventh consecutive session and will require some decent supply pressures in order to close beneath. This would lead to the next floor at 1,166.24, corresponding to the upper boundary of the broken channel, which would be a reasonable downside range for Friday. Gains are likely to be cut by 1,178.21, the weekly Pivot Point.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart shows an apparent correction of the channel upper trend-line which has now led to a surge. The next targets lie at 1,171.41 and 1,172.30 and correspond to the 100 and 55 hour SMAs respectively. The SMAs have just crossed to the upside, sending a strong bullish signal for Gold. Additionally, a falling wedge has been sketched and has led to a build-up of bullish potential. The short-time frame picture also shows the rate climbing back above 1,169.10 again.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment stays the same
The optimistic OANDA Gold traders have found the Bullion less attractive on Friday, as of open positions were 79.21% long, compared to 77.85% on Thursday. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank seem to have increased their bullish stance, as Wednesday showed 68.56% of traders betting the metal will surge, compared to 62.74% during the previous session.