- 59% of all SWFX open positions are long
- Trader pending commands are set up to buy the metal, namely 57% of total orders
- Gold opened Thursday's session at 1,172.40
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US Unemployment Claims; US ISM Manufacturing PMI
New orders for US manufactured durable goods rose markedly last month, driven by higher demand for machinery and other equipment, official figures revealed on Wednesday. Overall, new orders for capital goods jumped 4.8% in October, according to the US Department of Commerce. Meanwhile, market analysts anticipated a slight acceleration to 1.2%. The September figure was revised down from -0.1% to -0.3%. Demand for transportation equipment jumped 12% during the reported month, the largest gain since October 2015. Back in September, new orders for transportation equipment climbed 0.4%. Excluding orders tied to transportation, core durable goods orders increased 1.0%, following September's downwardly revised gain of 0.1% and surpassing the 0.2% rise market forecast. The US economy is set to expand at a 3.6% annual pace in the Q3, after growing 2.9% in the previous quarter. Separately, the Department of Labor reported on Wednesday the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased to 251,000 in the week ending November 18, up from the prior week's 233,000, whereas analysts expected a milder rise to 241,000.
On Monday 21 of November ECB President Mario Draghi, during his speech has urged the European Union to stay united in the face of different challenges such as Brexit as he warned that the cohesion of Europe is being tested. Speaking in the European Parliament in Strasbourg, Mr. Draghi noted that "The euro area recovery continues to proceed at a moderate, but steady, pace. It has shown remarkable resilience to adverse developments and uncertainties emanating from the global environment." said that Europe needs to respond "cohesively and decisively" to the current challenges facing Europe. Overall, Mr. Draghi maintained a neutral tone and he is not prepared at this stage to offer strong hints over the likely policy action at December's policy meeting. There were also no attempts to steamroller the ECB Council into policy action. The stated above comments will maintain expectations that the ECB is not planning to announce some form of bond-buying extension, although the details are still in discussion. In the meantime, reaction to the speech was limited as markets remained in a consolidation phase with EUR/USD finding support just below the 1.0600 level.
Upcoming fundamentals: US employment and ISM Manufacturing PMI
As expected all of the data released on Wednesday was ignored. The OPEC meeting and the following agreement on oil production freeze outweighed all of the other events. However, there are two macroeconomic data releases set to occur on Thursday, which might affect the strength of the US Dollar, and subsequently all of the financial instruments, against which it is traded. The releases will be the US Unemployment Claims at 13:30 GMT and the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 GMT.
Gold rebounds after touching 1,163 mark
Daily chart: The fall of the yellow metal, which began on Wednesday, stopped on Thursday morning, as the bullion reached a ten month low level by touching the weekly S1 at 1,162.76. The move was expected, as the metal faced no other level of support up to the before mentioned first weekly support. As a result of the rebound, gold is most likely to surge up to levels just below the 1,190 mark before it continues its downward path in accordance with the descending channel pattern.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart shows a beautiful picture. As forecast before, the metal fell down to the weekly S1 at 1.162.76 and not only touched it, but reached slightly below 1,162, as to make sure that all take profits set on a round number are triggered. Afterwards, the bullion began a rebound, which was not hindered until the metal encountered the 20-hou SMA, which seems to have enough strength to pause the surge back up.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment begins to move
OANDA traders have slightly increased their bullish outlook on gold, as 77.40% of open positions were long on Thursday, compared to 75.78% on Wednesday. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank seem to have not changed their opinion, as on Thursday 64.68% of traders bet the metal will surge, compared to 64.33% during the previous session.