- 51% of all SWFX open positions are neutral
- The yellow metal traded in a short term ascending channel for almost a month
- The recent fluctuations are caused and dictated by the US presidential election
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US Labor Market Conditions Index; US Loan Officer Survey; US Consumer Credit
US private companies added fewer than expected jobs last month, whereas the unemployment rate improved slightly, the October Non-Farm Payrolls report showed on Friday. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy created 161,000 new jobs in the reported period, while market analysts expected nonfarm payrolls to increase by 174,000. Meanwhile, the September gain was revised up to 191,000 from the originally reported 156,000. However, the odds of a December rate remained quite high, despite today's disappointing jobs report. Furthermore, average hourly earnings advanced 2.8% and 0.4% on annual and monthly basis, respectively, while average weekly remained unchanged at 34.4 last month. The unemployment rate declined unexpectedly to 4.9% in October, following the preceding month's 5.0%. After the release, the US Dollar declined slightly against other major currencies, trading at 1.1111 against the Euro and 103.10 against the Japanese Yen. Separately, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Friday that the US trade deficit narrowed to $36.44 billion in the same month from September's gap of $40.46 billion, which was revised up from the originally reported $40.70 billion deficit. Economists expected the US trade gap to decrease to $37.80 billion during October.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly last week, official figures showed on Wednesday. According to the US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims jumped 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 265,000 in the week ended October 29, the highest reading since the beginning of August. That marked the 87th consecutive week of initial claims below the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. Meanwhile, market analysts anticipated a slight decrease to 257,000 filings from the preceding week's 258,000. The four-week moving average of claims, which is considered a better measure of labor market trends, rose 4,750 to 257,750 last week. Other data released on Wednesday showed that the Institute for Supply Management's NonManufacturing Index declined to 54.8 in October from 57.1 seen in September, while economists anticipated a slighter decrease to 56.2 points. However, any reading above the 50 point-level indicates expansion in the service sector. The Business Activity Index and Employment Index fell to 57.7 and 53.1 in the same month, respectively. Separately, the US Census Bureau said factory orders advanced 0.3% in September, following the prior month's gain of 0.4% and surpassing the 0.2% rise forecast.
Upcoming fundamentals: Loads of white noise data
Clues regarding the strength of the US economy will be released in the second half of the day for people following the GMT timeline. At 15:00 GMT US Labor Market Conditions Index will be published, and at 20:00 GMT US Consumer Credit data will be available. Moreover, the US Loan Officer Survey is tentative.
Gold starts the session lower
Daily chart: The yellow metal's price declined on early Monday morning, as the bullion started the session a lot lower than the previous close. The lower opening was caused by the fact that the FBI Director James Comey sent another letter to the congress. This time it was mentioned that the conclusions expressed in July by the FBI have not changed after the latest review. The short version is – Clinton will not be charged by the FBI, ignoring the fact that the guilt of the presidential candidate has been proven.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart for the yellow metal reveals that after the drop the metal attempted to move back up. However, the bullion was stopped by the combined resistance of the weekly PP, 100-hour SMA and the previous ascending channel's trend line around the 1,294 level. Since then the metal has been falling without seeing any support until 1,283.50, where the 200-hour SMA is located at.
Hourly chart
SWFX traders are neutral
OANDA open long positions have increased to 68.99%, compared to 64.23% on Friday. SAXO bank traders remain long and have slightly increased their bullish positions to 56.09%, compared to 54.96% the previous session.