- 57% of all SWFX open positions are long
- The yellow metal recently formed a short term ascending channel
- The 1,250 psychological level provided support for a week
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: German Bundesbank President Weidmann Speaks
Manufacturing activity dropped less than expected in the Third Federal Reserve District, a monthly report revealed on Thursday. The Philly Fed's Manufacturing Index came in at 9.7 in October, compared to last month's 12.8, while market analysts anticipated a steeper decrease to 5.2 during the reported period. However, the three-month average rose to 8.2 in October from the previous month's 2.7 points. Furthermore, the six-month outlook advanced to 38.6 from September's 35.2. Other data released by the US Department of Labor showed the number first-time claims for state unemployment benefits increased 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 260,000 in the week ended October 15, following the preceding week's upwardly revised figure of 247,000 and falling behind the 251,000 market forecast. Filings for US unemployment benefits remained below the 300,000 level for the 85th consecutive week, the longest streak since 1973. The increase in initial claims was partly due to Hurricane Matthew, which caused flooding and damage in the Southeast region. The four-week moving average, considered as a better measure of labor market trends, jumped 2,250 to 251,750 last week. Moreover, continuous claims rose 7,000 to 2.06 million in the week ending October 8.
US housing starts dropped unexpectedly last month, whereas building permits rose more than expected, official figures revealed on Wednesday. According to the US Department of Commerce, the total number of housing starts issued fell 9.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.05 million in September, hitting the lowest level since March 2015, while market analysts anticipated a slight increase to 1.18 million units during the reported period. August's housing starts were revised up to a 1.15 million rate from the originally reported pace of 1.14 million starts. US single-family starts, which account for the largest segment of the market, climbed 8.1% to a 783,000 unit pace last month, the highest reading since February. The drop was mainly driven by the volatile multi-family segment, which posted a 38.0% decline to 264,000 unit pace in September. In the meantime, building permits advanced 6.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.23 million in the same month, following August's upwardly revised reading of 1.15 million permits and surpassing the 1.17 million unit pace market forecast. Building activity is set to rebound in the coming months as building permit values remained strong, with single-family and multi-family permits rising 0.4% and 16.8% in September.
Upcoming fundamentals: EU Economic Summit Day 2
Today there will be no information coming in from the United States of America, and the Greenback will remain steady. However, it is the second day of the EU Economic Summit, and decisions and outspoken phrases there are set not only to affect the Euro, but the financial markets as a whole. Especially, stocks and alternative safe investments as the bullion could jump on some announcement made by some head of state or central bank at the summit. Although, it is most likely that the speech of the German Bundesbank President Weidmann at 9:00 GMT is the one speech to listen to.
Gold fails to break resistance and retreats
Daily chart: The bullion retreated back to near 1,260 levels on Friday morning, as the metal failed to break through the resistance cluster, which it faced on Thursday. Although, the outlook looked bright for the yellow metal on Thursday morning, the metal failed to break through the weekly R2 and monthly S2 near 1,273. Afterwards, even the 200-day SMA failed to support the bullion, which fell and continued the fall on Friday morning to reach the support provided by the weekly R1 at 1,261.62. However, it is still possible at large that the metal will continue to fall during the rest of the day.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart for the yellow metal reveals that there were two attempts to break through the before mentioned resistance cluster. However, by 15:00 GMT the metal had plunged to the 55-hour SMA, which hindered the fall for some time. Although, afterwards the rate fell and reached the weekly R1 at 1,261.62, against which it slightly rebounded.
Hourly chart
SWFX traders remain positive regarding gold
Meanwhile, OANDA Bank clients remain majorly bullish with respect to the bullion, as on Friday morning 77.58% of all positions were long. In the meantime, SAXO bank clients show a similar trend with 68.54% of all positions being held by bulls.