- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are negative (40% bullish / 60% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.0811
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.0759
- Upcoming events on April 3: US Non-farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate (Mar)
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The Euro zone's manufacturing activity rose more than initially estimated and at the fastest pace in 10 months, while new orders from overseas buyers rose on the back of a weaker Euro. The final manufacturing PMI climbed further to 52.2 points in March, up from preliminary 51.9 points. While a weaker currency is beneficial for companies, it also raises costs for manufacturers by lifting import prices.
In the Euro zone's powerhouse, Germany, final data showed that the manufacturing continued to grow in March, with the corresponding index coming in at 52.8, the highest level in 11 months. Nevertheless, March's manufacturing data from France signalled an ongoing contraction in the sector, even though the final reading was better than preliminary results.
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US labour market data to be released despite start of Easter holidays
Tomorrow, the US Department of Labour is going to publish one of the most important data among all country's fundamentals. It will cover the labour market, including the employment change and unemployment rate for March. According to the mean expectations, the non-farm payrolls' growth is likely to calm down to 244,000 from 295,000 in February.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value with growing trading range
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since July of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards with a significant negative slope. At the same time, mid-March movements of the Euro have also confirmed a widening trading range of this currency pair, meaning it is currently hovering inside the broadening falling wedge pattern. By the end of April, the common European currency is expected to surge up to the 1.17 mark where 2005 low and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement will most probably push the cross back in the direction of 1-1.05 area. In the meantime, the Euro may hit 1:1 against the US Dollar as soon as by the end of July 2015. However, a presence of dense zone of technical levels may also considerably influence the time-frame for this important event.Daily chart
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EUR/USD remained stable in course of the trading session on Wednesday. As expected, the pair continued to be capped by a strong support zone at 1.0760 (2003 low and weekly S1) and is currently hovering above it. At the same time, the downward risk remains in place, taking into consideration bearish long-term technical indicators. If short traders push the Euro below weekly S1, then the probability of a decline down to weekly S2 at 1.0617 will increase significantly.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment and pending orders are negative
Additionally, pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot are accounting for 40% in the morning today, no change from Wednesday. It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's potential rebound can be limited by the weekly PP at 1.09. On the other hand, a potential downward development of the Euro is assumed to be extended down to 1.05.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is waiting for the Euro to grow against US dollar this week
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Read More: Community Forecasts
Likerty, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bullish outlook towards the common currency by saying that "the Euro has plenty of technical supports to re-test the 1.060 level." In addition to that, he expects the US dollar to show some weakness during the period of this trading week.
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Mar 2 and Apr 2 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.07 by the end of July. Though the majority of participants, namely 54% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop even below 1.06 in ninety days, with 25% alone seeing it below 1.02. Alongside, 20% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.06 and 1.12 by the end of July of this year.
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