- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are negative (40% bullish / 60% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.0811
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.0759
- Upcoming events on April 2: US Unemployment Claims (Mar 27), Trade Balance (Feb) and Factory Orders (Feb), ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
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Unemployment in Germany, the Euro zone's most powerful economy, dropped to its lowest level on record in March of this year, the Federal Labour Agency in Nuremberg said on Tuesday. As country's economy is returning back as the region's powerhouse, its labour market is showing clear healthy signs. Unemployment rate decreased to as low as 6.4%, even though analysts projected the indicator to remain unchanged at the previous mark of 6.5%.
In the meantime, consumer prices in the single currency area remained in red in March, still being affected by oil prices that fell considerably during past nine months. Annual inflation was released at –0.1%, thus posting a positive change on a monthly basis, up from –0.3% in February. Alongside, the core reading stayed flat at 0.6%.
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ECB to publish minutes of recent meeting on Thursday
On April 2, the European Central Bank is going to publish minutes of its last monetary policy meeting. However, on this note the European side will turn to be silent in terms of fundamental statistics during the day. Nevertheless, in the US statistical authorities will release the most recent data on jobless claims for the week ended March 27, and it will be followed by trade balance and factory orders data.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value with growing trading range
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since July of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards with a significant negative slope. At the same time, mid-March movements of the Euro have also confirmed a widening trading range of this currency pair, meaning it is currently hovering inside the broadening falling wedge pattern. By the end of April, the common European currency is expected to surge up to the 1.17 mark where 2005 low and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement will most probably push the cross back in the direction of 1-1.05 area. In the meantime, the Euro may hit 1:1 against the US Dollar as soon as by the end of July 2015. However, a presence of dense zone of technical levels may also considerably influence the time-frame for this important event.Daily chart
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On Tuesday, EUR/USD declined significantly for the second consecutive day. Moreover, the Euro tried to penetrate one of the strongest support levels at 1.0760, represented by 2003 low and weekly S1. However, currently this level is succeeding in holding pair's bears from pushing the cross lower. In case the pair consolidates back above 1.0760, it may grow above 1.0811 (monthly PP) in the near-term. On the other hand, in case of bearish success, the common currency will head towards weekly S2 at 1.0617.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment and pending orders are negative
Additionally, pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot are accounting for 34% in the morning today. Therefore, their level returned back to the mark seen two days ago on Monday. It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's potential rebound can be limited by the weekly PP at 1.09. On the other hand, a potential downward development of the Euro is assumed to be extended down to 1.05.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is waiting for the Euro to grow against US dollar this week
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Read More: Community Forecasts
Likerty, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bullish outlook towards the common currency by saying that "the Euro has plenty of technical supports to re-test the 1.060 level." In addition to that, he expects the US dollar to show some weakness during the period of this trading week.
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Mar 1 and Apr 1 expect, on average, to see the currency pair just below 1.08 by the end of June. Though the majority of participants, namely 57% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop strongly below this mark in ninety days, with 41% alone seeing it below 1.04. Alongside, 22% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.08 and 1.14 by the end of June of this year.
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