USD/CNH approaches 2021 low level

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA


From mid-June up to the middle of September, the USD/CNH tried to and failed at passing the 6.5000 level and a zone that surrounds it. The rate bounced off the resistance and revealed that it is trading in a channel down pattern during the middle of October.

Most recently, the channel down pattern has guided the rate down to almost reaching the 2021 low level zone at 6.3500/6.3600. Future forecasts were based upon whether or not the 2021 low level provides support and reverses the decline.

In the case that the pair recovers from the 2021 low levels, it could aim at the resistance of the upper trend line of the channel down pattern near 6.4000. Meanwhile, note that the 50-four hour period simple moving average could reach the 6.4000 mark by the time a rate's recovery reaches that level. In addition, a move above 6.4000 could find resistance at 6.4500 and the 200-four hour period simple moving averages.

On the other hand, a decline below the 2021 low levels would result in the rate reaching levels not seen since 2018. Most likely, a potential drop would look for support in the channel down pattern's lower trend line and the 6.3000 mark, before reaching the 2018 low level zone near 6.2500.
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