Major events of the previous week (24-28 November)

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
While some European experts believe that there is no need of extra stimulus in the Eurozone, others urge the ECB to act in the beginning of 2015. ECB policy maker Ewald Nowotny said that the first quarter of 2015 would be too early for the central bank to take further steps to fuel the Euro bloc's economy. Nowotny also praised the latest extraordinary measures by the ECB, including rate cuts, ABS purchases and TLTROs, and noted that it would take some time for them to materialize in the real economy. The OECD, however, reiterated its calls for the ECB to deploy quantitative easing. The Paris-based think-tank says the Euro zone is at risk of deflation should the economic growth stagnates or inflation expectations decline further. It projects the Euro area's inflation rate at 0.6% next year and 1.0% for 2016—the outlook which is slightly more pessimistic than the EU's own projections. In response to the OECD's call, ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio said that the central bank is set to purchase government bonds early next year should policy makers ponder that more decisive measures are needed. The central bank aims to expand the size of its balance sheet to the levels of early 2012, meaning around 1 trillion euros higher than it is today. If the ECB purchases sovereign debt, using the capital key, it means German bunds would be the main target. Roughly 18% of any money spent would go on German Bunds, 14% on French bonds and 12% and 8% on Italian and Spanish paper, respectively. The next official meeting of ECB is due to take place on December 4, with the central bank expected to keep rates unchanged and maintain its dovish tone. 
Meanwhile, in the UK the BoE officials expect their next decision will be to hike interest rates and now they are focused on timing and a degree of an eventual tightening in policy, even despite weak inflation. Nevertheless, the BoE Governor Mark Carney highlighted that external risks are the main menace to the UK economy, given the two major economies—Europe and Japan, see their economic conditions deteriorating, while geopolitical situation remain difficult. The British economy continues to rely on domestic spending, which drove the nation's economic output to a seventh consecutive quarter of expansion. Household spending climbed 0.8% in the three months through September, the most since the second quarter of 2010. The second official estimate of third-quarter GDP showed no revision to the quarterly growth of 0.7%. On an annual basis, the UK economy grew 3%, also unrevised from an earlier estimate. On the negative side, business investment decline of 0.7%, the first drop in more than a year, and exports fall of 0.4% weighed on the economy in the third quarter. 
The US economic expansion was much stronger than initially estimated in the three months through September, boosted by surging consumer spending. The nations' gross domestic product rose a seasonally adjusted 3.9% in the third quarter compared with the 3.5% rate expected earlier.  
In Japan, former Minister of Finance Eisuke Sakakibara sees the Japanese Yen drop to stop eventually after plunging 14% since mid-year. He believes that the nation's currency is unlikely to hit its low of 124.14 per Dollar in the run-up to the financial crisis in June 2007. Sakakibara also highlighted that the Japanese economy is not that weak despite the fact that negative impact of April's sales tax appeared to be prolonged. Thus, eventually, the tax increase will loosen its chocking impact on the world's third biggest economy and the Yen will start strengthen. Meanwhile, the minutes of the latest BoJ board member meeting showed four policy makers expressed concerns that expanding quantitative easing could do the economy more harm than good. Thus, the surprise announcement of extra stimulus on October 31 was approved by the narrowest majority, with five of nine members having been in favour of doing more. 

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