© Jonathan Webb
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Yes, I do. I think that were definitely inflows last summer, particularly, when the European debt crisis spread to Spain, while still having a toll on Greek economy. However, as concerns the current situation, I believe we are seeing a reversal of some of those flows, which is also in line with EUR/CHF move higher.
Do you think that the UK might exit the European Union in the future? If so, what would it mean for the UK and European Union economies and relationship?
In terms of the currency, I think it is weighing on the Sterling at the moment. However, I would consider that this issue is actually something that would take a very long time till we see any movement. Although the market is focused on the U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron's speech, this will not be much of a driver in the short-term.
Moreover, in terms of the direction where the European Union is headed, over the time as the EU launches the fiscal union and the banking union, the Eurozone gets ever closer. Consequently, the U.K. will become a more peripheral part of the European Union in any case. I think that is the way the UK is heading: I mean if a country is not a part of the Eurozone while at the same time being a member of the EU is quite different if the country is in fact in the Euro area.
What is your forecast for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP by the end of the quarter?
By the end of the quarter I suspect the Pound will be a bit weaker, and thus EUR/GBP will be just above 85. The Cable might also be a little bit lower probably around the level of 1.57. It is not a huge move, but there is definitely room for further changes in the next few weeks.