- Opened positions on Gold remain strongly positive (63% bullish / 37% bearish)
- The closest resistance for the yellow metal is currently located at 1,221
- At the same time, the closest support for the bullion is placed at 1,216
- Upcoming events on May 18: Italy Trade Balance (Mar), German Bundesbank Monthly Report, Japan Industrial Production (Mar), Switzerland Retail Sales (Mar)
Gold remained firmly above the key $1,200 an ounce on Friday following a spike to its highest level in three weeks a day earlier as the US Dollar came under pressure amid mixed US data. Bullion headed towards its biggest weekly gain in four months, as precious metal gained 3% this week, the biggest advance since mid-January. Recent US fundamentals supported the view that the American economy is not strong enough for the Fed to start hiking record-low rates from June. Meanwhile, holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, declined 0.61% to 723.91 tonnes on Thursday, hitting the lowest level in four months.
Meanwhile, retail sales in New Zealand increased at a record pace in the first quarter of 2015 as the beginning of the school year boosted demand for consumer electronics such as laptops and tablets. The volume of sales rose a seasonally adjusted 2.7% in the three months through March, accelerating from the 1.9% pace in the December quarter, according to Statistics New Zealand.
Swiss retail sales to rebound in March
Retail sales in Switzerland posted a considerable drop in February, when they slumped by 2.7% on the annual basis. In March, however, markets may expect a rebound of this indicator. Alongside, Japan will release data on industrial production and tertiary industry activity in March. All in all, the first working day of the next week should not have significant influence on both foreign exchange and commodity markets.XAU/USD develops inside bearish wedge pattern on daily chart
Since the second quarter of 2013, the bullion has been developing inside the falling wedge pattern, meaning that trading range is decreasing as time goes on. Two pattern's boundaries are represented by the upper trend-line around 1,270 and pattern's support at 1,120. Among recent developments, in March 2015 the yellow metal resumed gaining value, even without touching the lower trend-line. In the foreseeable future gains are likely to be limited and the bullion should be driven by the 200-day SMA around 1,220 with a slight bearish bias. Some short-term gains in the direction of the long-term downtrend (1,270) are not completely off the table, but bears are eventually going to overtake a lead and drive the metal back to the south. The overall negative tendency for Gold seems to be the case in the long run, while at the end of this year the precious metal should to consolidate around 1,150, in case the present trend persists.Daily chart
After rising above the 200-day SMA yesterday, the yellow metal attempted to jump even higher, by violating the weekly R3 at 1,221. However, the bullion was stopped by immediate resistance in face of April high around 1,225. As a result, it returned back below the weekly R3. For the bullish outlook to be confirmed, Gold must hold above the simple moving average for at least two days or consolidate above 1,225. Meanwhile, additional support for XAU/USD is going to be provided by monthly R1 / 100-day SMA at 1,213.
Hourly chart
SWFX opened positions on Gold remain strongly positive
Meanwhile, OANDA's bulls continue to enjoy a stable majority, even though their share retreated further during the past 24 hours, down by additional four percentage points to 59%. Gold's sentiment at OANDA is only the sixth most positive among all major currency pairs at the moment. Saxo Bank market participants, from their side, are also optimistic with respect to the precious metal, but there is only a slight advantage of bullish positions (54%) over the bearish ones (46%) by 5:30 AM on May 15.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on XAU/USD between Apr 15 and May 15 expect, on average, to see Gold trading around 1,200 by the end of August. At the same time, 57% of them believe the bullion will be above this mark in three months, while 24% of traders surveyed forecast the bullion to trade in the range between 1,050 and 1,200.