- The number of orders to acquire the Buck inched up from 53 to 55%
- 53% of traders with a positive outlook towards the US Dollar
- Immediate resistance lies at 116.20
- The closest support rests around 116.50
- Upcoming events: President-Elect Trump's Speech, US Crude Oil Inventories
The number of job openings in the United States was little changed in November, according to the latest data released on Tuesday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported monthly job openings dropped to 5.52 million during the reported month, missing analysts expectations' of 5.59 million. Meanwhile, October's level was revised down to 5.45 million from 5.53 million. The JOLTS report is closely followed by the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. Jobs in local government, excluding education, climbed to more than 32,000, whereas private job openings overshoot government hires by 48,000. Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5.2 million and 5.0 million, respectively, while the layoffs and discharges rate remained unchanged at 1.1% during the eleventh month of the year.
Other data released Tuesday showed US wholesale inventories rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.0% in November from 0.9% in the previous month. This marked the largest increase since November 2014.
US Trump's Speech to focus on
Although there are no significant fundamental data releases scheduled for today, the President-Elect Trump's Speech today is expected to have an impact on the USD/JPY pair's performance. He is expected to provide more information regarding his China policies, which could dampen then Buck's strength. On the other hand, his comments have a solid chance of providing the ‘Trump rally' with more juice.USD/JPY in limbo ahead of Trump's speech
Even though the USD/JPY currency pair edged lower on Tuesday, the losses were not as harsh as was first anticipated. Wednesday, however, brings a lot of uncertainty, as the US President-Elect is scheduled to speak today. His speech could have a significant impact on the US Dollar's performance. We expect the Buck to strengthen and climb over the monthly PP, which rests at 116.20. Technical indicators also suggest the Greenback is to edge higher today. The overall ceiling is expected to be the 117.00 mark, where the 20-day SMA coincides with the weekly PP, making that area a rather strong resistance.Daily chart
The Buck appears to be traded in a bearish trend against the Yen now, rather than consolidating. An additional confirmation of the trend-line is required, thus, a rally today could provide us with that. Moreover, the trend-line is now reinforced by the 200-hour SMA, making this scenario more probable..
Hourly chart
There are now 53% of traders with a positive outlook towards the US Dollar, compared to 52% on Tuesday. At the same time, the number of orders to acquire the Buck inched up from 53 to 55%.
Right now 53% of OANDA clients are bears, unchanged since Tuesday. In the meantime, Saxo Bank clients have bulls gaining numbers, being that 54% of their open positions are now long and the remaining 46% are short.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders are becoming increasingly bullish on the Dollar
According to the poll that gathered forecasts between December 11 and January 11, traders expect the US Dollar to appreciate to 119.23 yen in three months' time, while the forecast for November 30 was only 103.30 yen. It is also worth noticing that 66% of all forecasts fall above 117 yen, which is close to the current spot price. The majority of people voted expect the US Dollar to cost somewhere between 123.00 and 124.50 yen in three months, with 16% of the survey participants choosing this trading range. At the same time, the second most popular interval was the 121.50-123.00 one, with 15% of survey participants choosing it.