- The portion of purchase orders increased from 50 to 52%
- 62% of traders hold short positions
- Immediate resistance lies at 114.01
- The closest support rests around 113.25
- Upcoming events: US Initial Jobless Claims, Japanese BSI Manufacturing Index, US Preliminary Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment
The number of job openings was little changed in October, official figures revealed on Wednesday. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' JOLTS survey, employers advertised 5.53 million openings, a rate of 3.7%, in the reported month, in line with analysts' expectations. Meanwhile, the September figure was revised up to 5.63 million from the originally reported 5.49 million openings. Hiring dropped to 5.1 million, whereas the number of separations decreased to 3 million. However, the data suggest that hiring is unlikely to rise in the upcoming months. The biggest declined in job openings occurred in professional and business services, which includes accountants and engineers as well as temp workers. The number of job vacancies advanced 2% over the past year, while hiring decreased 2.2%, suggesting that employers face difficulties in finding skilled workers. The following gap and low unemployment rate may force businesses to raise pay to attract workers.
Other data released on the same day by the EIA showed crude oil inventories fell 2.4 million barrels in the week ending December 2, whereas analysts expected a fall of 1.4 million barrels, following the preceding week's declined of 0.9 million. After the release, WTI futures fell 1.4% to $50.20, while Brent crude declined 1% to $53.38.
US Initial Jobless Claims and Japanese BSI Manufacturing Index
On Thursday there is only one event that could have some impact on the USD/JPY pair, the Initial Jobless Claims. They are a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in the market, which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. However, the market does not usually have a significant reaction to the given piece of news. From the Japanese side some attention could be paid to the BSI Manufacturing Index, which studies business authorities' assessments of and forecasts for the economy to seize information for keeping track of economic trends. The BSI is the percentage of firms that say domestic economic conditions are rising compared with the previous quarter, minus the percentage of firms that say domestic economic conditions are declining compared with the previous quarter.USD/JPY stuck between the weekly PP and 23.60% Fibo
In spite of all bullish signs, the Greenback failed to edge higher against the Japanese Yen yesterday, as the 23.60% Fibo provide to be too strong to pierce. However, the USD/JPY pair did not suffer substantial losses, with the immediate support, namely the weekly PP, remaining intact. Technical indicators insist the Buck is to climb up today, but a bearish development is more probable, since the pair remains close to this week's strong resistance. Due to lack of market movers bears are unlikely to push the US Dollar below the 113.25 level, where the weekly pivot point rests.Daily chart
The up-trend failed to hold the USD/JPY pair yesterday, as bears continued pushing lower, also causing the 200-hour SMA to get pierced. This indicates that more bearish momentum could follow, unable to confirm the trading range seen on the daily chart.
Hourly chart
Once again 62% of traders hold short positions (previously 59%). Meanwhile, the portion of purchase orders increased, having risen from 50 to 52% in the last 24 hours.
Meanwhile, there has been a decrease in the number of long positions at other brokers. Right now 60% of OANDA clients are bears, compared to 57% on Wednesday. In the meantime, Saxo Bank clients also remain slightly on the bearish side, being that the portion of shorts takes up 52% of the market.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders are becoming increasingly bullish the Dollar
According to the poll that gathered forecasts between November 08 and December 08, traders expect the US Dollar to appreciate to 111.06 yen in three months' time, while the forecast for November 30 was only 103.30 yen. It is also worth noticing that 68% of all forecasts fall above 108 yen, which is close to the current spot price. The majority of people voted expect the US Dollar to cost somewhere either between 111.00 and 112.50 or between 117.00-118.50 yen in three months, with 14% of the survey participants choosing these trading ranges each. Meanwhile, the second most popular intervals are the 105.00-108.50 and 112.50-114.00 ones, both with 10% of the votes, also followed by the 109.50-111.00 chosen by 8% of all the surveyed.