- SWFX market sentiment is 60% bearish
- Trader pending orders are 60% to sell
- Pair opened Thursday's session at the 1.1216 level
- Aggregate daily technical indicators bet EUR/USD will surge
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: German Unemployment Change; US Final GDP; US Unemployment Claims; Janet Yellen's Speech
New orders for US manufactured core durable goods dropped less than expected last month, official figures revealed on Wednesday. According to the US Department of Commerce, total new orders for durable goods were unchanged on a monthly basis in August, following the preceding month's downwardly revised gain of 3.6%, whereas market analysts expected new orders to drop 1.0% in the eight month of the year. August's flat reading was mainly driven by a 21.9% drop in demand for civilian aircraft. Excluding goods like motor vehicles and machinery, durable goods orders declined 0.4% in August, while economic desks penciled in a fall of 0.5%. The previous month's rise in core new orders was revised down to 1.3% from the originally reported 1.5%. Other data released by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed crude oil inventories in the United States fell 1.9 million barrels in the week ended September 23, whereas analysts anticipated a rise of 2.4 million barrels after the preceding week's 6.2 million-barrel drop. After the release, WTI crude rose 1.1% to trade at $45.18 per barrel, whereas Brent crude advanced 1.5% to trade at $46.66 on the NYSE.
Confidence among American shoppers rose unexpectedly to its highest level since the recession in September, official data revealed on Tuesday. According to the Conference Board, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) jumped to 104.1 in September, whereas market analysts expect it to come in at 98.6 in the reported period. Meanwhile, the preceding month's reading was revised up to 101.8 from the originally reported 101.1 points. The survey is a closelyfollowed barometer of consumer attitudes towards business conditions, personal finances, jobs and short-term outlook. The data showed that 27.9% of respondents stated that jobs were plentiful in the ninth month of the year, following August's 26.8%. Furthermore, only 21.6% claimed that jobs were hard to find, compared to last month's 22.8%. The share of those expecting more jobs to be created in the upcoming months increased to 15.1% from last month's 14.4%, while the share of respondents expecting less jobs declined to 17.0% from August's 17.5%. The proportion of respondents expecting their incomes to worsen fell to 10.3% from 11.0% in the prior month. The US economy is mostly driven by consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of all economic growth.
Upcoming fundamentals: Various data and speeches
There are various data releases set to occur during Thursday's trading session, which are likely to affect the fundamentals of the EUR/USD currency pair. First of all the German Unemployment Change is set to be out at 7:55 GMT. Afterwards, in the second part of the day data from the US will reveal how strong the Greenback is. First, at 12:30 GMT the US Final GDP for the last quarter will be out, and at the same time the US Unemployment Claims are also set to be released. Last but likely the most important will be the Fed Chairwoman's Janet Yellen's Speech at 20:00 GMT.
EUR/USD aims for 1.1280 on Thursday
Daily chart: The common European currency was set to surge against the US Dollar on Thursday morning, as it faced no resistance up to the level of 1.1280, where the first weekly resistance is located at. Previously, on Wednesday the currency exchange rate experienced high volatility, as it was trading in the range from 1.1182 to 1.1236. In the meantime, daily aggregate technical indicators support a surge of the rate by the end of today's trading session.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart for the EUR/USD pair reveals that the currency exchange rate was pressured from above by various simple moving averages to move to try and fall below the monthly pivot point at 1.1190. However, the SMAs failed, as the rate bounced off the PP at 8:00 and 15:00 GMT. Since the last rebound the currency pair has been steadily surged and has moved past the SMAs.
Hourly chart
Traders mark a week of unchanged bearishness
SWFX trader sentiment remains unchanged, marking a week of steady bearish sentiment, as 60% of open positions are short on Thursday. In the meantime, pending commands have become identical to the open positions, as 60% of set up orders are to sell the pair.
OANDA trader sentiment remains unchanged on Thursday, as 56.69% of open positions are short. In the meantime, SAXO Bank clients have increased their bearish stance, as open short positions now add up to 67.51% compared to 64.91% on the previous trading session.