- SWFX market sentiment is 58% bearish
- Trader set up pending orders are 57% short
- Pair opened Friday's session at the 1.1137 level
- Aggregate daily technical indicators bet EUR/USD will surge
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: EU GDP (Q2); EU Industrial Production (June); US Retail Sales (July); US PPI (July); US UoM Confidence Preliminary (Aug)
The number of job openings in the United States increased more than expected during the sixth month of the year, official data showed on Wednesday. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of positions waiting to be filled rose to 5.62 million in June, following last month's upwardly revised figure of 5.51 million. Market analysts anticipated a slight increase to 5.52 million in the reported month. Furthermore, there were 5.1 million hires and 4.9 million separations with 2.9 million quits in June. The JOLTS report is closely followed by Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, who often cites it when assessing the state of the labour market. US crude oil inventories rose for the third consecutive week, surpassing analysts' expectations, the weekly report from the Energy Information Administration revealed on Wednesday. US commercial crude inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels in the week ended August 5, following the 1.4 million barrel rise posted in the previous seven days. Meanwhile, markets expected a decrease of 1.3 million barrels in the reported period. Recently, the International Energy Agency revised up significantly its 2017 global oil demand growth forecast to 97.4 million barrels per day, whereas the World Bank downgraded its 2016 global growth forecast to 2.4% from January's 2.9%.
According to the Labour Department Thursday's release, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits went down during the last week, figuring out that stable labour market strength in early August that could help speed up economic growth. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 266,000 in the August 6 week. Initial claims have been below the key 300,000 level for the past 75 weeks in a row, showing the longest streak since 1970 as well as did not depict any signs of rising. Meanwhile, economists polled by Reuters had forecast initial claims reaching the 265,000 mark in the latest week. Also, Labour Department highlights there were no special factors influencing last week's claims data and no states had been estimated. Moreover, summer usually brings turbulences in weekly figures due to the re-equipment of auto plants. However, this summer, weekly claims figures have been more or less consistent, around 270,000 or fewer for the past eight weeks. The another report showed the US natural gas futures plunged to a two-month low in North America, after data revealed that natural gas supplies in storage in the US added more than forecasted last week.
Upcoming fundamentals: EU GDP and US data
Together with the end of the week, a lot of data will be released on Friday. First of all the EU gross domestic product for the second quarter on a quarter to quarter and annual basis will be published at 9:00 GMT. At the same time the EU Industrial production for June will be released, and it will be available on a month-to-month and yearly basis. Afterwards, at 12:30 GMT statistics will be published in the US, as retail sales and the PPI data for July will be out. The retail sales data will consist of three various indicators, as Retail Sales Control Core, Retail Sales Ex Auto and general Retail Sales will be released. In addition, the PPI will be available not only on monthly and yearly basis, but also the change will be published excluding food and energy. Last but not least, at 14:00 GMT the US UoM Confidence Preliminary index will be published for August.
EUR/USD around 1.1140 on Friday morning
Daily chart: The common European currency moved below the 55-day simple moving average at 1.1150 against the US Dollar, and the currency exchange rate remained below the SMA on Friday morning, as by 5:30 GMT the pair was at 1.1140. As the rate has formed a channel up trend starting with August 4, in accordance with the pattern the currency pair is set to surge during today's trading session, which is also supported by the daily aggregate technical indicators. However, the EUR/USD pair might first move lower to the 1.1122 level, where the weekly PP meets the pattern's lower trend line.Daily chart
Hourly chart: On the hourly chart the Euro depreciated against the Greenback until it reached the 200-hour SMA at 1.1144, 55-hour SMA at 1.1138 and lower Bollinger band at 1.1143 by 8:00 GMT. It rebounded off the support cluster and moved upwards until it reached the channel up pattern's upper trend line at 1.1182 by 15:00 GMT. Afterwards the pair fell below the 200-hour SMA at 1.1144 around 17:00 GMT. Since then the currency exchange rate has been struggling just below the simple moving average, as it tries to penetrate the resistance put up by it.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment bearish on Friday
OANDA trader bearish sentiment has decreased compared to Thursday's 60.29%, as, at the moment, 57.54% of OANDA open positions are short. In the meantime, SAXO Bank clients have decreased their bearish stance, as their open short positions are now at 64.41% compared to 67.79% of last trading session.