- SWFX market sentiment is 59% bearish
- Trader set up pending orders are 52% short
- Pair opened Wednesday's session at the 1.1116 level
- Aggregate daily technical indicators bet EUR/USD will surge
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US JOLTS Job Openings (June); US Monthly Budget Statement (July)
Germany's trade surplus rose more than expected in the month of the EU referendum, fresh figures from the Federal Statistical Office revealed on Tuesday. The trade surplus in the Euro zone's largest economy grew to 24.9 billion euro in June, compared to May's 21.0 billion euro surplus, whereas market analysts pencilled in an increase to 23.8 billion euro in the reported month. German exports grew 0.3% on a monthly basis in the sixth month of the year, following the preceding month's 1.8% drop. Nevertheless, economic desks anticipated an acceleration of 1.3% in the reported period. Meanwhile, German imports advanced 1.0% during the first month of summer after rising just 0.1% in May, whereas markets expected a 1.3% increase. Other data released by the Federal Statistical Office on the same day showed that the German current account, a measure of the country's balance payments with the rest of the world, rose to 26.3 billion euros in June from the preceding month's upwardly revised figure of 18.4 billion euros, whereas economic desks predicted a slight increase to 20.9 billion euros in the reported period..
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased to 269,000 in the week ended July 30, compared to the preceding week's reading of 266,000, whereas market analysts pencilled in a slight drop to 265,000 in the reported period, fresh figures from the Department of Labour showed on Wednesday. The 269,000 initial jobless claims figure reported last week marked 74 consecutive weeks of claims under the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. The data also showed that the four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labour market trends, grew 3,750 to 260,250 in the reported week. A Labour Department analyst highlighted that there were no special factors influencing last week's claims data. In the meantime, the number of continuous jobless claims fell 6,000 to 2.14 million in the week ended July 23, while the four-week moving average jumped 5,250 to 2.14 million. Last week's claims report has no impact on the NFP data for July, set for release on Friday. Economic desks forecast nonfarm payrolls to show growth of 180,000 for the seventh month of the year, following June's hike of 287,000.
Upcoming fundamentals: US Monthly Budget and JOLTS Job Openings
On Wednesday the EUR/USD pair will be affected by data releases coming from the United States, as the JOLTS Job Openings for June and the US Monthly Budget Statement for July will be released. First out will be the JOLTS Job Openings, which will be published at 14:00 GMT and the forecasted number is five and a half million. The monthly budget is set to be out at 18:00 GMT, and the forecast is a negative 129 billion US Dollars.
EUR/USD surges above 1.1150 on Wednesday
Daily chart: The common European currency is surging against the US Dollar on Wednesday, as the currency exchange rate broke through resistance put up by the 55-day SMA at 1.1150 by 5:00 GMT. Previously the rate surpassed the 20-day SMA and monthly PP at 1.1107 on Tuesday and the weekly PP at 1.1122 in the early morning of Wednesday's trading session. Daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the rest of Wednesday's trading session. However, the weekly forecast shows a fall for the rate, which at the moment seems unlikely.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart shows that the Euro surged against the Greenback by only experiencing some minor setbacks due to resistances put up by the 55-hour SMA at 1.1095 level by 8:00 GMT and the 100-hour SMA at 1.1114 by 14:00 GMT. In addition, the weekly and monthly pivot points did not manage to stop or even hinder the surge, as the currency exchange rate ignored those resistances.
Hourly chart
SWFX traders bearish on Wednesday
OANDA trader bearish sentiment has increased compared to Tuesday's 57.00%, as, at the moment, 58.10% of OANDA open positions are short. In the meantime, SAXO Bank clients have increased their bearish stance, as their open short positions are now at 64.41% compared to 62.29% of last trading session.