- 57% of all SWFX market positions are short
- Pending commands bet that EUR/USD will decline in the future
- By closing below the key support (monthly PP; 55-day SMA), the short-term outlook is set to worsen
- Daily technical indicators are holding a positive bias
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: Euro zone CPI (Apr); US Crude Oil Inventories (May 13); FOMC Meeting Minutes
The cost of living in the US recorded the biggest increase in more than three years in April, since gasoline and rents rose, pointing to a steady inflation build-up that could give the Federal Reserve ammunition to raise interest rates later this year. Consumer prices increased to 0.4%, which is the biggest gain since February 2013, following a 0.1% increase in March, the Labour Department report showed. That took the year-on-year increase in the CPI to 1.1% from 0.9% in March. Moreover, data showed that the so-called core CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, rose 0.2% after climbing 0.1% in March. In the 12 months through April, the core CPI increased 2.1% after increasing 2.2% in March. The Federal Reserve has a 2% inflation target and tracks an inflation measure which is currently at 1.6%. The rise in prices in April is likely to be welcomed by the Fed officials who last month softened their language on inflation at the end of a regular meeting. However, financial markets do not expect the central bank to hike rates again before September, given sluggish growth at the beginning of the year. The US central bank lifted its benchmark overnight interest rate for the first time in nearly a decade and policymakers have forecast two more rate hikes this year.
New Zealand producer input and output prices fell in the first quarter, mainly driven by lower fuel prices and weaker output prices for sheep, beef, grain and dairy farmers, suggesting inflationary pressures remain tepid. Input prices dropped 1% in the first quarter for an annual decline of 0.9%, while output prices decreased 0.2% in the quarter for a 0.1% annual gain, according to Statistics New Zealand. Input costs for the petroleum and coal manufacturing sector tumbled 22% last quarter and are half what they were in mid-2012, following the sharp drop in global oil prices since then. Dairy product manufacturing input costs were 4.5% lower in the same quarter but output prices increased 3.4%. The business price indexes come a day after the release of the RBNZ's quarterly survey, which showed expectations for inflation one year out climbed to 1.22% from 1.09% in the previous survey, which was the lowest reading since 1994, while the two-year ahead gauge barely ticked up to 1.64% from 1.63%. Persistently weak inflation adds to the case for the RBNZ to trim the official cash rate a quarter point to 2% as soon as its June meeting. Meanwhile, Fonterra's biweekly auction showed a rebound of the GDT Price Index. The GDT Price Index surged 2.6% with the average price reaching $2.283 per metric ton, following the 1.4% decline to $2,203 per metric ton booked on May 3.
Upcoming fundamentals: European inflation to sink in April
Following inflation data releases from Britain and America on Tuesday, the Euro zone will publish its own statistics later today. The release is up at 9:00 GMT. According to the mean forecast among top economists, the annual increase in consumer prices will turn negative again in April of this year. A CPI growth of 0.1% on a monthly basis is likely to be weak enough in order to avoid a drop of the year-to-year reading to -0.2% from 0% in March. This is the only statistics the markets are awaiting throughout the European session on May 18.
EUR/USD probes 55-day SMA ahead of EU CPI
EUR/USD tested the weekly pivot point resistance line at 1.1346 on Tuesday; however, the bears took control over the market after US data showed better than anticipated inflation in April. Thus, we are looking for more dips over the next 24 hours and the pair has already attempted to attack the monthly S1 and upward-sloping 55-day SMA, both placed at 1.1288. In case the exchange rate closes under the latter, the outlook will diminish and the view will turn to the first weekly demand at 1.1246. Meanwhile, disappointing EU CPI data later on Wednesday may only fuel a decline of the single currency.Daily chart
Based on the one-hour chart, the observed currency pair is starting to feel increased downside pressure from the 200-hour SMA, currently at 1.1368. Therefore, there is a high risk of closure below the two-month uptrend, which rests at 1.1315. Bearish success here would mean that the EUR/USD pair is capable of tumbling down to the April low at 1.1215 in the nearest possible period of time. To neglect the present bearish outlook, it has to resume trading above the moving average line. However, it has not been the case since May 6.
Hourly chart
Sentiment steady as pending orders rebound marginally
Sentiments of both OANDA and SAXO Bank marketplaces are also bearish towards the researched currency pair. OANDA clients are 56.4% (55% yesterday) negative today, while about 63.1% (64.7% on May 17) of SAXO Bank positions are maintaining the short future outlook.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Dukascopy Community members are bearish on this week's perspectives of EUR/USD
Three fourths of the Dukascopy Community members are expecting a decline in the value of the Euro against the Greenback by the end of this working week. The median estimate for May 20 stands at the level of 1.13. Among traders, megajorko suggests that the pair will indeed tumble over the next few days. He says that "I see a slightly bearish outlook and the only thing that could weigh is FOMC decision. We saw a better than expected retail sales number and this will give some boost to USD [...]."
On the other hand, trader Eco assumes that the incoming European fundamental statistics will be supportive for the European currency, not the US Dollar. He thinks that "This week will bring a lot of economic announcements that may support the Euro."