- 57% of all SWFX market positions are short
- Pending commands are bearish for the first time in 6 days
- Bears to focus on penetrating monthly S1/20-day SMA at 1.1288/69 over Monday; bulls to set eye on the most immediate resistance at 1.1346 (weekly PP)
- Daily technical indicators are undecided for a second consecutive day
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US Empire State Manufacturing Index (May)
Quarterly GDP growth showed a positive trend in the Euro area, rising above previous quarter levels even after a downward revision. Euro zone's seasonally adjusted GDP showed a 0.5% gain, topping the 0.3% advance in the final quarter of 2015, but falling short of analyst expectations, who estimated no change in the measure after revision. The yearly GDP growth was revised slightly down as well, as it displayed a 1.5% improvement, repeatedly causing analyst disappointment. While almost all of the countries in the Euro zone experienced higher growth, with the exception of Latvia and Greece, Germany led the way with an immense improvement in economic performance, as its quarterly GDP expanded by 0.7%, compared to a previous 0.3%. Other large Euro zone economies showed a strong positive trend in their quarterly GDP as well, with France advancing 0.5%, the Italian economy expanding by 0.3% and Spain staying steady at 0.8% growth. Discussion on political uncertainty has, however, fuelled doubts over the sustainability of Spain's future growth estimates. A separate report showed Germany's inflation rate slipped into negative territory in April, with the CPI gauge falling 0.1% year-on-year, compared with the preliminary estimate of the 0.1% increase.
The Governor of the Bank of England strongly defended his warning last week that a vote to leave the European Union in June could push Britain into recession. Mark Carney faced calls for his resignation, with Conservative MPs accusing him of interfering into politics, after the bank's Monetary Policy Committee warned of slower growth and higher inflation if Britons vote for a ‘Brexit' in the key referendum on June 23. The BoE was criticised for providing a one-sided analysis. However, Carney insisted he was not entering into the wider referendum debate but that the central bank had a duty to explain its thinking and potential risks to the economy. Carney said the BoE's job of ensuring financial stability and steering inflation back to its 2% target required the bank to be honest about short-term economic risks, such as a vote to leave the EU that could hamper reaching these goals. Prime Minister David Cameron and the leaders of Britain's other main political parties, as well as international bodies such as the IMF, all support Britain staying in the EU. Meanwhile, Britain's output in the construction sector dived 3.6% on a month-on-month basis in March, more than expected and further down from the fall of 0.9% a month before, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Upcoming fundamentals: US data due as Europe enjoys Bank Holiday
Bank holidays across Europe on Monday will result in no fundamental data releases over the whole trading session in the region. However, some activity can be estimated during the US trading. The Empire State fresh manufacturing survey for May is first up at 12:30 GMT. Last month the indicator unexpectedly climbed much above economists' projections to 9.56 points, up from 0.62 in March. This month they expect a slight setback to 7.10 points, provided that the markets are deeply concerned about general state of US production sector.
EUR/USD: outlook slips as trend-line breached
Positive streak of US data resulted in a drop from the monthly pivot point at 1.1376 on Friday. EUR/USD slid below the 1.13 marker and reached the monthly S1 at 1.1288, but the loss was contained here and the pair closed the session at 1.1309. Nonetheless, the rate confirmed the penetration of the March-April uptrend at 1.14, meaning now the forecast is tilted more to the downside. We are now watching the aforementioned monthly S1 along with the 55-day SMA at 1.1269. A decline under here would refocus attention to the April low at 1.1214. Meanwhile, upward cap is represented by the weekly PP at 1.1346.Daily chart
Another two-month upward-sloping line is managing to limit a sell-off at the moment. It rests near the current spot price; however, downside risks remain uplifted. A failure here would proclaim that there exists a real possibility of a retreat down to the April low. Additional momentum is offered by the 200-hour SMA, which has recently started to follow the dropping exchange rate.
Hourly chart
Pending orders fall to bearish territory as current sentiment remains short
Sentiment of both OANDA and SAXO Bank marketplaces remains bearish towards the researched currency pair. OANDA clients are more than 57% negative today, while about 63.8% (66% on May 13) of SAXO Bank positions keep the bias in favour of the shorts.